Non-traditional metrics may provide a better way of anticipating a burstring market bubble, reports The Economist: “Surges in Googling do a much better job than valuations at forecasting an imminent fall, as the chart’s third column shows. In each case the price of the stock, basket, fund or cryptocurrency dropped considerably over the 12 months following the peak in internet searches. Moreover, for the ARKK fund, bitcoin, GameStop and SPACs, prices spiked at almost exactly the same time as Googling did.”
Monthly Archives: December 2025
Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 02 December 2025
Long-term expectations for the Global Market Index (GMI) are holding at a 7%-plus annualized total return, based on data through November. The forecast has been stable at this pace in recent months, ticking up slightly from last month’s estimate.
Macro Briefing: 2 December 2025
US manufacturing contracted for a ninth straight month in November, based on the ISM Manufacturing Index. “The manufacturing sector continues to be weighed down by the unpredictable tariffs landscape,” said Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at Santander U.S. Capital Markets.
Major Asset Classes | November 2025 | Performance Review
Most of the major asset classes rose in November, extending the previous-month’s broad-based gains, based on a set of ETF proxies. US real estate investment trusts led the way, posting a robust gain last month.
Macro Briefing: 1 December 2025
US consumers spent a record $11.8 billion online for the Black Friday shopping spree. The sales level marks a 9.1% rise from last year, according to Adobe Analytics, which tracks e-commerce. Spending increased despite weak consumer sentiment, according to a new CBS News/YouGov poll.
