The war with Iran appears headed for some form of negotiated settlement. The main uncertainties are timing and details. But the longer the conflict lasts—and the longer the Iranian regime survives—the outlook, as interpreted by The Capital Spectator, is that a decisive US victory, defined as capitulation by Tehran, becomes less likely. The implication of this forecast: a messy, uneven, and protracted period of de‑escalation on the road to a settlement may continue to disrupt the global economy for the foreseeable future.