* Red Sea attacks threaten global supply-chain disruption
* Is the appetite for rising US debt near a limit?
* Overtightening risk suggests rate cuts needed, says Fed official
* Poll finds renewed demand for stocks fueled by expectations for rate cuts
* Bank of Japan maintains ultra-easy policy amid ‘extremely high’ uncertainties
* Goldman Sachs lifts S&P 500 forecast on high confidence for rate cuts
* US home builder sentiment rises in December for first time in 5 months:
It’s been a profitable year for the major asset classes, with a glaring exception: commodities. The general slide in prices of raw materials stands out in an otherwise rising tide for global markets, based on a set of ETFs through Friday’s close (Dec. 15).
* Declaring victory over inflation is premature, says Chicago Fed chairman
* Major central banks have different plans for initial rate cuts
* Regional bank stocks surged after Fed hints at rate cuts in 2024
* Corporate bankruptcies rising at double-digit rates in most advanced economies
* Oil prices unlikely to rebound to $100 a barrel in 2024, analysts forecast
* US business activity picked up in December via PMI survey data:
● Political Technology: The Globalisation of Political Manipulation
Andrew Wilson
Summary via publisher (Cambridge U. Press)
‘Political technology’ is a Russian term for the professional engineering of politics. It has turned Russian politics into theatre and propaganda, and metastasised to take over foreign policy and weaponise history. The war against Ukraine is one outcome. In the West, spin doctors and political consultants do more than influence media or run campaigns: they have also helped build parallel universes of alternative political reality. Hungary has used political technology to dismantle democracy. The BJP in India has used it to consolidate unprecedented power. Different countries learn from each other. Some types of political technology have become notorious, like troll farms or data mining; but there is now a global wholesale industry selling a range of manipulation techniques, from astroturfing to fake parties to propaganda apps. This book shows that ‘political technology’ is about much more than online disinformation: it is about whole new industries of political engineering.
US economic activity is still on track to slow after strong growth in the third quarter, but recession risk remains low, based on a set of nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.
* Six rate cuts expected for 2024, predicts Morningstar economist
* China industrial output and retail sales rose in November, but…
* China economic activity still appears to be slowing
* Eurozone business activity contracts at faster rate in December
* AI is threat to financial system, US regulators warn
* US jobless claims drop to 8-week low, suggesting labor market remains strong
* US retail sales rebound in November, beating expectations:
A month ago the trend in global markets remained bullish despite the fallout from a correction that started mid-summer, based on several sets of ETF pairs. Following yesterday’s upbeat Federal Reserve news, however, the upbeat outlook has strengthened.
* Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged, hints at cuts in 2024
* Fed trims core inflation forecast to 2.4% for 2024
* Record debt and high interest rates threaten global economy: World Bank
* Global oil demand has been slowing “drastically”, says IEA
* US wholesale prices flatline in November, pointing to softer inflation
* Business inflation expectations relatively unchanged at 2.4%: Atlanta Fed
* Federal Reserve expects rate cuts in 2024:
Today’s update of the “fair-value” model for the US 10-year Treasury yield reaffirms that the benchmark rate appears unusually high relative to the economic fundamentals. Although that condition has prevailed for some time, the recent slide in the 10-year yield suggests market conditions are starting to normalize the gap, albeit on the margins.
* Fed set to leave rates unchanged for third time in today’s policy meeting
* COP28 climate summit calls for ‘beginning of the end’ for fossil fuels
* Treasury Sec. Yellen says US economy on Path to soft landing
* China says it will boost demand to promote 2024 recovery
* Ford will cut output of electric pickup truck in half due to weak demand
* The business opportunities in oil still far exceed investing in renewable energy
* US headline inflation eases in November, but core CPI remains steady:
