A mixed run for markets last week offered a partial reprieve, but the trend profile still skews negative overall, based on a broad measure of the major asset classes via a set of ETFs.
Author Archives: James Picerno
Macro Briefing: 30 October 2023
* Israel ground assault into Gaza expands on Monday
* Markets pricing in low probability for wider Mideast war
* Initial GDPNow nowcast for US Q4 GDP: +2.3%, down from Q3’s red-hot +4.9%
* US consumer spending rose by a brisk 0.4% in September
* Several factors are supporting US consumer spending spree
* Americans say household expenses outpacing income, poll finds
* Some estimates equate recent rise in bond yields with two, three Fed rate hikes
* Gold near $2000/oz. as Israel starts ground offensive:
Book Bits: 28 October 2023
David Leonhardt (Author)
Review via The New York Times
His striking contention, based on a study of census and income tax data by the Harvard economist Raj Chetty, is that where once the great majority of Americans could hope to earn more than their parents, now only half are likely to. Although the precise ratio depends on assumptions about inflation, and is less striking, as Chetty notes, when one takes into account shrinking household size, the general point is unquestionable. Economic progress used to define America. Now, Leonhardt finds “stagnation in nearly every reliable measure of well-being.” He arguably overstates the case — for instance, median household income has generally continued to rise — but the malady he identifies is real.
Early Q4 US GDP Guesstimate Points To Sharp Economic Slowdown
Yesterday’s blowout rise for US economic growth in the third quarter delivered an upside surprise, especially for analysts who remain all in with forecasting recession. But perhaps the warnings will finally find traction via the current run of softer Q4 nowcasts.
Macro Briefing: 27 October 2023
* US strikes targets in Syria in possible sign of widening Middle East conflict
* US government shutdown deadline on Nov. 17 is key test for new House speaker
* European Central Bank leaves rates unchanged after 10 straight hikes
* Pending home sales in US rose last month despite higher mortgage rates
* US jobless claims tick higher but remain ultra low
* Durable goods orders in US rise sharply in September
* US economic growth accelerates in Q3 to fastest pace since Q4:2021:
Large-Cap Stocks Continue To Lead US Equity Factors In 2023
Large-cap shares remains on track to dominate US equity factor performance for 2023, based on a set of ETFs through Wednesday’s close (Oct. 25). Within the large-cap space, technology shares are the driving force behind the outperformance.
Macro Briefing: 26 October 2023
* Newly elected House Speaker Mike Johnson faces 5 key challenges
* Strong US consumer spending at risk of reversing, strategist predicts
* Seven large US tech stocks have driven all of the gains in global stocks this year
* Autoworkers reach deal with Ford, marking a move toward ending strikes
* Big oil companies are doubling down on outlook for rising use of fossil fuels
* California suspends Cruise robotaxis after accident
* New US home sales rise to 19-month high in September:
US Soft-Landing Odds Rise As Q3 GDP Nowcast Ticks Up
Tomorrow’s release of third-quarter economic data is expected to show that US output accelerated, based on GDP nowcasts from several sources compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.
Macro Briefing: 25 October 2023
* The Israel-Gaza war threatens to re-ignite conflicts across the Middle East
* China announces more stimulus to aid struggling economy
* Central banks ‘100% dead wrong’ on economic forecasts: JPMorgan’s Dimon
* US orders AI-chip exports to China to halt immediately
* Bitcoin surges ahead of expected launch of BlackRock bitcoin ETF
* US Composite PMI (GDP proxy) rises, suggests higher odds of soft landing:
Market Sentiment Suggests Fed Funds Rate Has Peaked… Again
In January 2023 the clues appeared to be aligning in favor of an end to the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes. It was a false dawn – the Fed lifted its target rate four times in subsequent months, by a total of 100 basis points.