Today’s “fair value” estimate of the US 10-year Treasury yield continues to suggest that the current market rate is unusually lofty and that the spread will soon narrow. Yesterday’s sharp drop in the 10-year yield (triggered by upbeat inflation news for October) suggests that the process of normalizing has started.
Author Archives: James Picerno
Macro Briefing: 15 November 2023
* House passes bill to avert government shutdown
* Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping will meet today in San Francisco
* Odds appear to rise for US soft-landing economic scenario
* China retail sales and industrial output in Oct rise more than expected
* More disinflation pressure expected for housing, expert predicts
* US consumer inflation eased in year-over-year terms through October:
Desperately Seeking Yield: 14 November 2023
Current yields for the major asset classes edged higher recently, based on a set of proxy ETFs through the close of trading on Monday, Nov. 13.
Macro Briefing: 14 November 2023
* House to consider stopgap spending plan to avoid government shutdown
* US forces attacked four times in Syria since US military strikes on Sunday
* World economy will top expectations in 2024: Goldman Sachs
* Oil demand remains strong despite recent price weakness, says OPEC
* World oil supply growth is exceeding expectations: IEA
* Markets shrug at warning of ratings outlook downgrade for Treasurys
* Exxon plans to become major lithium supplier for electric vehicles
* UBS expects Fed rate cuts in 2024 as policy-sensitive 2-year yield eases recently:
Globally Diversified Portfolios On Track For Solid 2023 Gain
On paper, the set-up sounds toxic. An ongoing war on Europe’s eastern border, a new conflict in the Middle East that could turn into a regional battle, and sharply higher interest rates to combat inflation. It doesn’t sound like the conditions that are conducive to robust gains, but year-to-date results for global portfolios suggest otherwise.
Macro Briefing: 13 November 2023
* US launches more strikes on Iran-linked groups in Syria
* House GOP unveils plan to avoid a government shutdown
* Moody’s cuts US credit outlook to ‘negative’ despite reaffirming AAA rating
* China consumption rebound slowed, business confidence lost momentum in Oct
* US and Indonesia discuss possible deal on electric-vehicle minerals
* Foreclosures surge in risky corner of commercial property market
* Renewable energy firms suffering a rough earnings season
* US Consumer Sentiment Index falls for fourth straight month in November:
Book Bits: 11 November 2023
Rob Copeland
Review via The Daily Beast
In public, Ray Dalio has all the markings of an icon. He built his hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, into the largest in the world; he signed The Giving Pledge; he wrote a book about his principles (title: Principles) that sold millions of copies.
New York Times reporter Rob Copeland is here to shatter the illusion. On Tuesday, Copeland published a new biography, The Fund: Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates, and the Unraveling of a Wall Street Legend, which draws on interviews with hundreds of people in Dalio’s orbit.
International Stocks On Track To Trail US Equities In 2023
After world shares ex-US enjoyed a rare if unimpressive win over American shares in 2022 — by losing less — the odds don’t look encouraging for a repeat run of outperformance in 2023, based on a set of ETFs through Thursday’s close (Nov. 9).
Macro Briefing: 10 November 2023
* Congress has no plan to avoid a government shutdown on Nov. 17
* Powell says Fed ‘not confident’ it has done enough to tame inflation
* Global trade data suggests worst of downturn has passed
* Int’l diversification is worth a new look after a strong run for US markets
* China’s ICBC, world’s biggest bank, hit by cyberware attack
* US jobless claims tick down, holding near multi-decade low:
Still Looking For A Clear Risk-Off Signal In Markets
A review of market trends in early September suggested that the recent correction didn’t trigger a clear risk-off signal. Two months later, not much has changed, based on several ETF pairs that are proxies for various aspects of market sentiment via prices through yesterday’s close (Nov. 8). Markets are churning as various threats raise questions about the path ahead, but for the moment it’s still not obvious that investors are throwing in the towel on risk assets.