* German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is meeting with Biden at White House on Friday
* Robust global economic data suggest central bankers need to raise rates further
* China business activity in services ‘rises sharply’ in February
* Eurozone business activity rebounds in February–fastest pace since June 2022
* Entire US Treasury yield curve now above 4%
* Average US 30-year mortgage rate rises above 7% again
* US jobless claims post downside surprise, highlighting labor market strength:
The Global Market Index’s (GMI) expected long-run performance held at 6.0% annualized in February, unchanged from last month, based on the average estimate for three models (defined below). Today’s revised outlook is slightly below the trailing 10-year return for GMI, an unmanaged, market-value-weighted portfolio that holds all the major asset classes (except cash).
* US 10-Year Treasury yield rises above 4% for first time since November
* Mortgage applications in US drop to 28-year low as rates rise
* Global manufacturing output rises in February after six months of decline
* Eurozone inflation eases in February but remains high at 8.5%
* Economists expect firmer economic growth in China for 2023
* US construction spending unexpectedly fell in January
* ISM Mfg Index ticks up in February but still shows sector contracting:
After starting the new year with roaring gains, global markets whimpered in February, posting across-the-board losses, based on a set of proxy ETFs.
* US Treasury official goes to Beijing despite US-China tensions
* China’s mfg sentiment rebounds, reflecting strongest growth since 2012
* Euro area manufacturing production stabilizes in February: PMI sentiment
* US home prices fell for sixth-straight month in December
* Chicago PMI continues to indicate weak business-activity conditions in February
* US Consumer Confidence Index eased again in February:
The strong outperformance of high-beta stocks shows no sign of relinquishing leadership in the US equities market this year, based on a set of ETF proxies through Monday’s close (Feb. 27).
* UK and EU announce deal on thorny Northern Ireland border
* China’s approval of new coal plants surged in 2022, report says
* Will the clean-energy future arrive by drilling for hydrogen?
* US cyber chief says companies need to do more to boost security
* Coinbase will suspend trading of Binance USD stablecoin
* Some bosses say they’re set to replace workers with AI
* US core durable goods orders in January rise the most in five months
* Decline in Texas factory factory deepens in February
* US pending home sales rebound sharply in January:
Sellers took a toll on all the major asset classes last week, based on a set of ETF proxies.
* If China sends lethal aid to Russia, it would incur ‘real costs’, US warns
* Moldova worries it could be Russia’s next target for a Crimea-style annexation
* US Energy Dept says covid probably came from lab leak
* Will cyberattacks on Albania, a NATO country, trigger an alliance response?
* Even uber-investor Warren Buffett wasn’t immune from market losses in 2022
* US economic data is mixed, but economists still expect recession: NABE survey
* Policy-sensitive 2-year US Treasury yield breaks out to 16-year high:
Jeanna Smialek
Review via The Economist
As covid-19 struck, markets were in meltdown and economic disaster loomed. The central bank swung into emergency mode, injecting vast, if not quite infinite, sums of cash into the financial system in order to avert a crisis… The actions worked a little too well. Before long, growth was recovering, markets were booming and price pressures were building. The Fed ended up having to fight America’s worst outbreak of inflation in decades—a fight that is ongoing. This sharp duality poses a dilemma for any appraisal of the Fed’s record during the pandemic… “Limitless” by Jeanna Smialek of the New York Times is a useful corrective. She provides a bracing account of just how badly things could have turned out when covid shutdowns led millions to lose their jobs overnight—and pushed the financial system to the brink of collapse.
