Minds will differ on the case for factor diversification in equity portfolios, but advocates will find a degree of support for the idea in year-to-date performances, based on a set of ETFs through yesterday’s close (Jan. 26).
Author Archives: James Picerno
Macro Briefing: 27 January 2022
* Justice Breyer to retire, giving Biden a choice for shaping Supreme Court
* Federal Reserve hints at possibility of several interest rate hikes this year
* US formally rejects Russian demand to bar Ukraine from NATO
* Russia and Ukraine will continue ceasefire talks
* N. Korea continues ballistic missile tests–its sixth round of launches this month
* Will Taiwan’s key role in producing computer chips trigger US-China conflict?
* UBS agrees to buy robo adviser Wealthfront for $1.4 billion
* New US home sales rose to a 9-month high in December:
Will Putin Invade Ukraine? Weighing The Risks, Gauging The Odds
The facts on the ground look ominous. Russia has deployed more than 100,000 troops on Ukraine’s border. The US, Europe and NATO have responded by warning Moscow that there will be a price to pay if President Vladimir Putin decides to invade. The situation has become a major risk factor for the global economy, financial markets and beyond,
Macro Briefing: 26 January 2022
* US working to supply Europe with energy supplies to blunt a Russian gas cutoff
* New omicron variant discovered and it’s spreading fast but little is known of risks
* Fed expected to signal a March interest rate hike today
* Gold is rising this year amid increased geopolitical tensions and market turmoil
* IMF says global recovery is ‘disrupted’ and cuts global growth forecast
* Falling stock prices may not delay the Fed’s hawkish policy choices this time
* US computer chip supplies near extreme lows
* US Consumer Confidence Index fell in January after gains in 2021’s Q4
* US home prices ease on year-over-year basis but still running hot:
US GDP Growth Set To Pop In Q4 Report But Q1 Outlook Is Sliding
Economic growth is expected to accelerate in this week’s initial estimate of fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP). The Bureau of Economic Analysis appears set to report a strong rebound in output for Q4 in Thursday’s release (Jan. 27). But the recovery will be short-lived, based on recent downgrades for the US outlook in early 2022.
Macro Briefing: 25 January 2022
* US puts 8500 troops on alert for possible deployment to Eastern Europe
* Europe considers the risk of Russia cutting off gas supplies
* China breaches Taiwan airspace with dozens of warplanes
* Does China’s zero-Covid policy put it at disadvantage to the West
* Is the Fed’s current pivot to tighter policy too little too late?
* Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index: US growth slowed to 11-month low in December
* US economic growth slows to a crawl in January via PMI survey data:
Commodities Continued Rising Last Week As Global Equities Fell
A broad measure of commodities rose for a third straight week as stocks around the world tumbled in trading through Friday’s close (Jan. 21), based on a set of ETFs tracking the major asset classes.
Macro Briefing: 24 January 2022
* Ukraine receives second weapons shipment from US amid Russia threat
* US considers moving troops to Eastern Europe and Baltics to counter Russia
* US and UK withdrawing staff from Ukraine embassies
* US food supply under pressure as Omicron exacerbates worker shortages
* Eurozone growth slows to an 11-month low in January via PMI survey data
* German economy shows resilience in January despite weaker Eurozone trend
* The Fed may be forced to hike rates four times this year, Goldman Sachs advises
* US Treasury market inflation forecasts remain below recent peaks:
Book Bits: 22 January 2022
Patrick Geddes
Interview with author via CNBC
“Learning about how your brain is wired and how your emotions drive your investing can actually be even more important than analysis,” Geddes explains.
Sometimes, these emotions get the best of us. He calls this concept of making emotion-based investment decisions the “illusion of control.”
“As investors, we imagine a kind of control over outcomes that doesn’t match the unwelcome reality that stocks behave pretty randomly,” says Geddes, who is the co-founder of investment management firm Aperio Group and former research director at Morningstar.
The ETF Portfolio Strategist: 21 Jan 2022
- Sharp losses this week bring most markets into the red for year-to-date results
- A rough week for all our portfolio strategy benchmarks
Widespread losses… with a few places to hide: Risk assets took a hit this week, or at least most did. But some corners of the global market were havens.