The recent rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield has stalled. It’s unclear if this is a pause before the upside trend resumes vs. the early stages of new leg down. The sharp rise in inflation this year and the potential for an economic slowdown in the new year are conflicting factors that are muddying the outlook. While this scenario continues, our baseline forecast anticipates that a trading range for the 10-year rate will prevail in the near term, in part based on today’s update of The Capital Spectator’s ensemble model for estimating the benchmark yield’s “fair value.”

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* California reimposes mandatory indoor mask requirement
* 2-dose Pfizer jab reportedly protects 70% against hospitalization from omicron
* US secretary of state warns China to end ‘aggressive actions’ in Asia-Pacific
* Second case of Omicron variant found in China
* US small business sentiment ticked up in Nov but still far below previous peak
* Wall St is starting to see opportunity in China’s battered stock market
* Apple on track to become world’s first $3 trillion company
* US 10yr Treasury yield falls to 1.42%–second-lowest level in over two months:

Risk-on sentiment expanded across global markets last week, led by a rebound in US shares, based on a set of ETFs representing the major asset classes through Friday’s close (Dec. 10).

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* G-7 countries warn Russia of ‘massive consequences’ if it attacks Ukraine
* US real interest rates go deeper into negative terrain as inflation rises
* Will 2020’s US borrowing binge create headwinds for Fed in fighting inflation?
* Share buybacks among S&P 500 companies hits record high for 2020
* The flattening yield curve suggests the economy’s tolerance for rate hikes is low
* US 10yr-2yr Treasury yield curve near 12mo low ahead of Fed meeting:

● Goals-Based Investing: A Visionary Framework for Wealth Management
Tony Davidow
Summary via publisher (McGraw-Hill)
The wealth management industry has undergone a major transformation over the last decade, including increased concerns and skepticism from investors, the growth of robo-advisors, product evolution, and an evolving value proposition—in addition to geopolitical risks, increased correlation across asset classes, changing demographics, and social tensions. Concepts like “Modern Portfolio Theory” aren’t modern anymore, and even Post-Modern Portfolio Theory has become passé. Investing products have evolved significantly over the past two decades, making it easier than ever for advisors and investors to access various segments of the market and unique asset classes. Goals-Based Investing examines product evolution and discusses how to use these tools to achieve your goals.

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How’s your US equities strategy doing this year? If you’re outperforming the market overall, there’s a good chance the bullish momentum is linked to overweights in energy, real estate, financials or tech – or perhaps all of the above.

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* Senate approves bill to lift debt ceiling and avoid US government shutdown
* US consumer inflation expected to rise to 39-year high in today’s Nov. update
* Online inflation rises to record 3.5% year-over-year, Adobe reports
* Ukraine-Russia efforts on new ceasefire in eastern Ukraine breaks down
* Germany’s foreign minister warns Russia on aggressive moves toward Ukraine
* Insiders selling stock at historic levels amid soaring share valuations
* China’s rising currency is outperforming the US dollar this year
* In upbeat sign for labor market, US jobless claims fall to a 52-year low:

With the end of the year in sight, the US economy continues to show signs of a sharp pickup in growth in the fourth quarter, based on several nowcasts.

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* US jobless claims appear to be stabilizing at pre-pandemic levels
* Another hot inflation report expected for tomorrow’s November update
* Policy shift at next week’s Fed meeting may damage central bank’s credibility
* US export challenges mounting due to bottlenecks at American ports
* China inflation continued rising in November but signs of peaking emerge
* China property developer Evergrande has defaulted on its debt: Fitch Ratings
* Could it happen again? World isn’t prepared for the next pandemic, report warns
* Italy fines Amazon $1.3 billion on charges of exploiting its market power
* US job openings rebounded in October, surprising forecasters on the upside:

Yes, according to economists’ forecast for this Friday’s November update (Dec. 10) on consumer prices.

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