Performance monitoring comes in many flavors, including popular favorites such as drawdown and rolling return over some trailing window. A less-familiar but useful metric: streaks, which quantifies an uninterrupted run of performance, up or down.

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* House passes $1.9 trillion Covid relief bill — Biden will sign it this week
* Biden will outline ‘next phase’ of US Covid relief in TV address tonight
* Covid relief bill raises taxes on the wealthy and big corporations
* Denmark suspends AstraZeneca’s Covid vaccine due to possible side effects
* Brazil’s Covid deaths are surging
* Will last year’s debt binge bring blowback for the global economy?
* US jobless claims expected to ease from high levels
* US budget deficit rises to $1 trillion and even higher levels are expected
* US consumer inflation picked up in February, but core trend eased:

In this issue:

• Small-cap value stocks are sizzling this year
• Commodities appear to be in a new bull market
• Warehouse REITs ride the post-pandemic recovery wave

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Small-cap value is back. This slice of US equity factor risk is leading the wide-ranging field of US equity risk factors by a wide margin so far in 2021, based on a set of ETF returns through Mar. 9.

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* House on track to pass $1.9 trillion pandemic relief bill today
* US stimulus/relief bill expected to boost world economy
* State tax revenues roughly flat in 2020 vs. previous year
* Alaska is first state to offer vaccines to anyone 16 or older
* US preparing to take ‘a mix of actions’ in response to the cyberattack from Russia
* Demand for hedge funds is rising, Credit Suisse survey finds
* China’s producer prices rose at fastest pace in over two years
* US small business optimism still under  47-year average in February:

The rise in US interest rates is refocusing minds and prompting attitude adjustments the world over, but most of the attention has been on the absolute increases in yields. To understand the changes on a deeper level, from a global perspective, it’s necessary to consider the relative shift too.

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* Biden’s $1.9 trillion Covid-19 relief plan set to become law this week
* Will US rebound create imbalance for world economy?
* Soaring home prices are starting to worry policymakers
* Rising oil prices may threaten global economic recovery
* CDC eases guidance for people who are fully vaccinated against Covid
* New US Covid-19 deaths below 1,000 for second day–four-month low
* Eurozone economy fell more than previously estimated in 2020’s Q4
* German exports rose in January, beating expectations
* 10-year Treasury yield continues to rise, reaching 1.59%:

In a mixed week for asset classes, shares in developed nations ex-US ran away with the best performance for trading through Friday, Mar. 5, based on a set of proxy ETFs representing the major asset classes.

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* Covid-19 aid bill heads to House after Senate approval
* Dems predict Covid-19 aid bill will easily pass in House
* US 10-year Treasury yield reaches 1.6% in early Monday trading
* Attack on Microsoft’s email system becoming a global crisis
* Will central banks maintain monetary support as growth returns?
* Crude oil above $70/barrel for first time in a year after attack on Saudi facility
* US jobs growth surged in February, beating expectation by wide margin
* The Fed doesn’t fear inflation. What could go wrong?
* US Dollar Index rises to highest level since late-November:

Global markets delivered a mix of gains and losses last week, but our two proprietary strategies were essentially unchanged. The performances are fractionally behind the benchmark, Global Beta 16 (G.B16), which edged up 0.1% for trading week through Friday’s close (Mar. 5). But given the turbulence in risk assets recently, holding steady is tolerable at the moment.

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