Author Archives: James Picerno
The ETF Portfolio Strategist: 18 Dec 2020
Latin America’s Winning Streak Continues: Stocks in Latin America extended their bull run for a seventh straight week through today’s close (Dec. 18). The iShares Latin America 40 (ILF) added 2.5% in this week’s session. Although the fund pulled back on Friday, the selling still leaves ILF close to a 10-month high.
China Leads World’s Major Equity Regions So Far In 2020
China’s stock market is posting the strongest gain among the world’s main equity regions in 2020 as the year’s final trading sessions come into view, based on a set of publicly traded proxies through yesterday’s close (Dec. 17).
Macro Briefing: 18 December 2020
* Second coronavirus vaccine moves closer to approval in US
* Congress still haggling over coronavirus stimulus as gov’t shutdown nears
* Google facing three major antitrust lawsuits
* US set to add dozens of Chinese firms to a trade blacklist
* Deflation deepens in Japan as consumer prices fall at fastest rate in a decade
* Philly Fed Mfg Index continues to reflect solid growth in December
* US housing starts rose in November–third monthly gain
* US jobless claims continue to rise, reaching highest level in over 3 months:
The Winter Of Our Coronavirus Discontent Is Just Starting
Vaccines are arriving and victory over the coronavirus at some point in 2021 now looks plausible in the US. But the winter months come first and the path ahead looks worrisome.
Macro Briefing: 17 December 2020
* Congress still negotiating a $900 billion coronavirus relief bill
* US reports record Covid-19 deaths (3600-plus) for December 16
* French president tests positive for Covid-19
* Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccine expected to receive FDA approval
* Fed leaves rates unchanged and commits to more bond purchases
* Fed lifts US economic growth forecast for 2021
* US retail sales fell more than expected in November
* Eurozone consumer prices fall for fourth straight month
* Bitcoin rises above $23,000 as Wall Street embraces the cryptocurrency
* Home builder confidence slips in December after reaching record high
* US economic expansion slowed in December via PMI survey data
US Treasury Yield Curve Steepens To 3-Year High
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to reaffirm its ultra-dovish monetary policy in today’s FOMC meeting and the futures market continues to price the odds of a rate hike at 0% deep into 2021. But real-world conditions in government bond trading are hinting, if only on the margins, that a post zero-forever world may not be forever after all.
Macro Briefing: 16 December 2020
* GOP Senate Majority Leader McConnell publicly acknowledges Joe Biden’s victory
* Economists expect decline in today’s November report on US retail spending
* Congress still negotiating details for Covid-19 relief package
* Eurozone economy “close to stabilizing” via PMI survey data for December
* German economy reflects “ongoing resilience” in December PMI data
* Japan’s economy continues to contract in December, PMI data shows
* UK economy growing slightly via December PMI survey data
* Will the Fed change its bond-buying program in today’s policy meeting?
* NY Fed Mfg Index in Dec continues to post moderate growth
* US industrial output growth slowed in November, rising 0.4%:
Is It Timely To Hold A Dollar-Hedged Investment Portfolio?
A bear-market bias continues to weigh on the US Dollar Index, which has tumbled sharply this year. That’s a bullish tailwind for US investors holding assets denominated in foreign currencies. Owning gold and cryptocurrencies – alternative forms of “money” untethered to the greenback – have been a profitable trades this year too.
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Macro Briefing: 15 December 2020
* Electoral College officially confirms Biden as the next US president
* Poor nations expected to endure long wait for vaccines
* US Covid-19 death toll above 300,000 as vaccine rollout begins
* US Attorney General Will Barr says he’ll step down next week
* FTC begins privacy probe of major tech firms
* US tech giants must change business practices in EU or face hefty fines
* US imports from China are surging
* China retail spending and industrial output continued to rebound in Nov
* UK layoffs rose to record high in Oct
* Does the US economy face a zombie recovery?
* CBOE Market Volatility Index — VIX — rises to highest level in over a month



