Author Archives: James Picerno

Macro Briefing: 15 December 2020

* Electoral College officially confirms Biden as the next US president
* Poor nations expected to endure long wait for vaccines
* US Covid-19 death toll above 300,000 as vaccine rollout begins
* US Attorney General Will Barr says he’ll step down next week
* FTC begins privacy probe of major tech firms
* US tech giants must change business practices in EU or face hefty fines
* US imports from China are surging
* China retail spending and industrial output continued to rebound in Nov
* UK layoffs rose to record high in Oct
* Does the US economy face a zombie recovery?
* CBOE Market Volatility Index — VIX — rises to highest level in over a month

Macro Briefing: 14 December 2020

* US vaccine rollout begins, offering hope for a beleaguered nation
* Electoral College today is set to formally cast votes for Biden as next president
* Vaccine rollout will likely be a topic at this week’s Fed meeting
* EU and UK extend trade talks but say no-deal Brexit is likely
* Eurozone industrial output picked up in October, rising 2.1%
* ECB expects inflation will remain below its just-under 2% target for years
* Russian hackers appear to have broken into US federal agency networks
* US consumer sentiment rebounded in recent weeks
* Policy sensitive 2yr Treasury yield drops sharply ahead of Wed’s Fed meeting:

Book Bits: 12 December 2020

Competition is Killing Us: How Big Business is Harming Our Society and Planet – and What To Do About It
Michelle Meagher
Interview with author via Pitchfork Economics
Neoliberal economics says free trade is always good, and its followers try to lower trade barriers without discretion. Freedom is an essential ingredient for successful international trade—but that doesn’t mean all trade should be unregulated. Competition law expert Michelle Meagher joins Goldy to debunk common competition myths and talk about strategies to hold powerful monopolies accountable.

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Macro Briefing: 11 December 2020

* Few signs of progress in Congress on passing coronavirus relief bill
* US close to approving Covid-19 vaccine
* US expected to sanction Turkey after purchasing Russian defense system
* EU prepares for no-deal in final days of Brexit talks
* UK reviewing adverse reactions to Pfizer vaccine
* Economic recovery expected to slow as US awaits vaccine rollout
* Global supply of negative-yielding bonds rises to $18 trillion
* US inflation increased more than forecast in November
* US jobless claims rose more than expected last week

Treasury Market Expects Higher Inflation. Will Hard Data Follow?

The implied inflation forecast via Treasury yield spreads continues to creep higher, but today’s November report on consumer prices is expected to reaffirm that pricing pressure remains muted. With the US suffering another coronavirus wave, the odds remain low that inflation will accelerate sharply in the near term. But a vaccine rollout is close and the economy will likely strengthen in 2021. Combine that with the incoming Biden administration, which will be incentivized to juice animal spirits, and the groundwork appears to be set for firmer prices generally.
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Macro Briefing: 10 December 2020

* Pfizer vaccine faces one last hurdle before US rollout
* House votes to fund government for a week as shutdown looms
* Covid-19 relief legislation force Facebook to sell Instagram and WhatsApp
* Covid-19 surge strikes South Korea and Japan
* Fitch raises growth outlook for China to 8% for 2021
* UK economy slowed to a crawl in October
* NY state’s pension fund will divest from fossil fuels
* Gold will suffer because of rising demand for bitcoin, JP Morgan predicts
* US job openings beat expectations with a modest increase in October