The US economy is suffering its worst economic downturn since the Great Depression and on some fronts the recession is the deepest on record. The obvious question: When will it end? No one knows because the uncertainty is high on how this unprecedented crisis unfolds in the weeks and months ahead. The next-best estimate is looking for a peak in the recession’s intensity and on that front yesterday’s update of the Philadelphia Fed’s ADS Index – a real-time business-cycle index for the US economy – offers a hopeful but still-precarious hint that the apex has passed. [Note: revised data released since this article was published dramatically reversed the upbeat revision history of the ADS Index, as detailed below.]

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Massive job losses expected in today’s payrolls report for April: Reuters
US and China officials say trade deal still on track: CNBC
Justice Dept drops case against Flynn, Trump’s first nat’s security adviser: AP
Senate fails to override Trump’s veto of a War Powers resolution: CNN
UN: coronavirus could trigger ‘famines of biblical proportions’: USA Today
The ‘sharing economy’ takes a heavy hit from the coronavirus: NY Times
Jobs cuts surged in April to highest on record: CG&C
US jobless claims continue to rise by the millions: MW

Inflation-adjusted interest rates in the US have been negative before, but the dip below zero this time is different vs. recent decades: the slide is accompanied by a global economic collapse that may or may not be temporary.

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Chinese and US trade reps expected to speak as soon as next week: BBG
Influential business cycle analyst: US recession will be over by Dec: MW
Surge in US jobless claims may peak this month: WSJ
Bank of England: UK economy will contract 30% in first half of 2020: FT
Industrial production in Germany and France fell dramatically in March: BBG
China’s services PMI signals “steep decline” for sector in Q2: IHS Markit
Small businesses are finding that converting loans to grants is complicated: NYT
US companies shed a stunning 20 million-plus jobs in April: ADP
PMI survey data suggests global economy declined 4% in April: IHS Markit

Sentiment in the US equity market continues to look on the bright side. Despite dismal economic numbers, which are set to become even grimmer, the collective wisdom of investors appears to be betting on a strong rebound in the near future.

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Trump plans to wind down coronavirus task force: Reuters
Coronavirus recession fallout is spreading across corporate America: CNN
Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg admitted to the hospital on Tuesday: WSJ
Today’s ADP Employment Report for April forecast: 20 million US jobs lost
Eurozone fell into a deep recession in April, PMI data shows: IHS Markit
Trade deficit for US increased the most in more than a year in March: Reuters
US services sector took a sharp dive into recession in April: ISM
Sentiment in the agricultural industry decline dramatically in April: Purdue
PMI survey data suggests US recession will deepen sharply in Q2: IHS Markit

The stakes have been high this year for choosing certain equity factors over others, as year-to-date results remind. Depending on your preference, 2020 has delivered mild losses so far—or deep declines, based on a set of exchange-traded funds.

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Global survey: majority favors saving lives over restarting economies: Reuters
Is the US prepared for a second wave of coronavirus? Project Syndicate
Dr. Fauci dismisses theory that Wuhan lab is source of coronavirus: Newsweek
Models predict sharply higher deaths if states relax social distancing: Politico
Why are US home prices rising during a pandemic? Falling supply: WSJ
Is Sweden’s model for managing Covid-19 useful for US? Maybe not: NY Times
US Treasury expected to borrow a record $3 trillion this quarter: CNBC
US factory orders fell sharply in March: MW
Big hedge funds are raising bets on gold, which is near an 8-year high: FT
Global manufacturing in April fell to lowest level since 2008-09 crisis: IHS Markit
US money velocity fell to record low in Q1, highlighting disinflation/deflation risk:

The projected long-run risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) rebounded in April after slipping below 4% annualized in the previous month. Today’s revised estimate for GMI: 4.3%, which is the index’s long-term projection over the “risk-free” rate. Compared with the outlook a year ago, today’s forecast is modestly lower.
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Pompeo links Covid-19 to Chinese lab but US intel agencies unsure: NY Times
China disputes US claim that Covid-19 came from Wuhan lab: CNN
North and South Korea exchange gunfire across DMZ zone: CNN
Coronavirus claims its first victim among big US retailers–J. Crew: Reuters
Record US unemployment expected in Friday’s jobs report: WSJ
Revised data show Eurozone manufacturing fell at record pace in April: IHS Markit
Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model’s Q2 nowcast: US economy crashes 16.6%: AF
US ISM Mfg Index fell deeper into recession territory in April: CNBC
US light vehicle sales fell dramatically in April: Haver Analytics