● US consumer confidence rises more than expected in Dec | USA Today
● US home prices still rising at 5%-plus annual pace in Oct | NY Times
● US merchandise trade deficit shrinks in Nov | Bloomberg
● Johnson Redbook: US retail sales index up 2.1% in 3rd week of Dec | MNI
● State Street: global investor confidence rises in Dec | P&I
● Eurozone money supply growth slows in Nov; private lending improves | RTT
● Global growth will be disappointing in 2016 says IMF’s Lagarde | Reuters

In the previous installment in this series of analyzing a globally diversified portfolio we reviewed the results after adding a momentum-based risk-management system. The test suggested that a tactical overlay can be productive… maybe, depending on the details. Let’s continue to investigate our sample portfolio by taking a closer look at the underlying factors that are driving risk and return.
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● Dallas Fed mfg survey for Dec: activity gains; outlook slips | Bond Buyer
● Global stock fall as Chinese industry reels | Telegraph
● China Mfg PMI in Dec likely to show 5th month of contraction | Reuters
● Oil near 11-year lows on abundant supply, slowing demand | Reuters
● Significant pockets of weakness remain in US economy | Jared Bernstein
● The dirty little secret (data) in economics research | John Cochrane

US equities regained their bullish footing in the abbreviated trading week through Dec. 24, taking the lead among the major asset classes, based on a set of proxy ETFs. The Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) posted a strong 2.8% total return for the four days through Christmas eve. In close pursuit: stocks in foreign developed-market nations via the Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF (VEA).
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● US jobless claims fall, near lowest level in decades | MarketWatch
● US Consumer Comfort Index rises, close to 2-mo high | Bloomberg
● Economy not ‘normal’ despite steady progress in 2015 | MarketWatch
● Don’t Fear Interest Rates in 2016 | Barron’s
● Deutsche Bank sees higher bond-market volatility ahead | Bloomberg
● Oil falls towards $37, near 11-year low, as excess supply weighs | Reuters

So many fascinating books, so little time. Here’s the second installment of The Capital Spectator’s 2015 year-end review, which recaps some of the memorable titles that have appeared in the weekly Book Bits column this year. For those who missed it, here’s Part I. We’ll wrap up our retrospective next week with Part III.
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Gloria in excelsis Deo
and on earth peace,
good will toward men

The outlook for fourth-quarter GDP growth is looking shaky at the moment, but the antidote for macro worries is still firmly entrenched in the labor market. Payrolls have perked up in recent months and today’s release of new unemployment filings hints at more of the same as fresh numbers roll off the government’s assembly line in the weeks ahead.
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Yesterday’s upbeat data for US personal income and spending delivered some holiday cheer, but the gains didn’t help the Atlanta Fed’s fourth-quarter GDP estimate. The fed bank’s widely followed GDPNow forecast for Q4 growth tumbled to a weak 1.3% (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in yesterday’s revision (Dec.23), down from the previous 1.9% projection. The update is a reminder that US economic growth appears on track to end 2015 with a whimper.
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● US personal income rises in Nov, boosting consumer spending | Reuters
● US durable goods orders unchanged in Nov | MarketWatch
● New home sales in US rose 4.3% in Nov | WSJ
● US consumer sentiment ticks up in Dec | 24/7 Wall St
● Mortgage applications in US jump 7.3% in week through Dec 18 | HousingWire