Macro Briefing: 12 December 2023

* Geopolitical risk is top threat for 2024: survey of institutional investors
* World economy may be entering ‘a second cold war’, warns IMF official
* US consumer inflation expectations fall to 2-year low: NY Fed survey
* Goldman Sachs now expects Fed rate cuts by Q3:2024
* The idea of government-backed digital currencies faces rising skepticism
* Jury decides Google has illegal monopoly in app store
* S&P 500 closes decisively above the summer high. Next hurdle is a record high:

US gasoline benchmark trading at lowest level since late-2021, which is helping lower headline inflation. One of the key factors lately is the recent slide in crude oil prices after the Nov. 30 meeting of the OPEC+ oil cartel, says Andy Lipow, president of consulting firm Lipow Oil Associates. The weakness in crude “showed that OPEC+ is struggling to balance oil supply and demand in light of the surprising increase in supply from the US, Brazil and Guyana, as well as disappointing demand from China.”

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