Macro Briefing: 15 December 2022

* Biden announces efforts to promote trade between US and Africa
* Markets appear more optimistic on inflation outlook vs. Fed’s expectations
* Fed Chairman Powell on rate hikes: “We still have some ways to go”
* China Covid spike predates ending zero-tolerance policy, says WHO director
* China retail sales fall sharply, more than expected in November
* Atlanta Fed business inflation expectations fall ‘significantly’ to 3.1%”
* US import prices slide for fifth straight month in November
* Federal Reserve slows rate hikes, lifting target rate by 1/2 point:

Global recession is a high risk for 2023, predicts Vanguard. “Current and expected conditions are like those that have signaled past global recessions,” the fund manager advises in its 2023 outlook. “Significantly deteriorated financial conditions, increased policy rates, energy concerns, and declining trade volumes indicate the global economy will likely enter a recession in the coming year. Job losses should be most concentrated in the technology and real estate sectors, which were among the strongest beneficiaries of the zero-rate environment.”