Macro Briefing: 16 July 2025

US consumer inflation’s 1-year pace picked up in June. The consumer price index rose 2.7% at the headline level vs. the year-ago level, up from 2.4% in May, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics — the highest increase since February. Citing tariffs as a factor, “Inflation is going kick into a much higher gear in coming months,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s. “We are on the leading edge of that now, but it will become clearly evident in the months ahead.” Omair Sharif, founder and president of Inflation Insights, wrote in a note to clients: The higher inflation data “showed that tariffs are beginning to bite.”

The hotter inflation report for June will keep Fed policy steady in the near term, analysts predict. “The heating up of inflation in June, while close to expectations, is a step in the wrong direction that will keep the Federal Reserve on the sidelines at the upcoming July FOMC meeting,” Scott Anderson, chief US economist at BMO Capital Markets, wrote in a note.

Business activity picked up slightly in New York State in July, according to the NY Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey. “The headline general business conditions index climbed twenty-two points to 5.5, its first positive reading since February.”

A group of House Republicans blocked several cryptocurrency regulation bills from advancing in the chamber. President Trump later said that the members had changed their minds and the legislation now had the votes to move forward.

The recent outperformance of clean-energy stocks over Big Oil shares suggests a change in leadership between the two sectors may be unfolding, advises a report by TMC Research, a unit of The Milwaukee Company, a wealth management firm. Consider how the five biggest alt-energy ETFs have performed year to date. Four of the five are currently ahead of the Big Oil proxy (XLE). The average of the five is up roughly 16% so far in 2025 vs. less than a 5% rise for XLE. Note that the alt-energy strength this year has arrived after the April stock market sell-off.

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