Macro Briefing: 19 September 2023

* US national debt tops $33 trillion for first time, but…
* Federal debt as % of economy has fallen from pandemic high
* Rising oil prices threaten soft-landing scenario for Fed policy
* Central banks should keep interest rates high until inflation tamed, says OECD
* OECD lifts global economic outlook for 2023 but cuts next year’s growth forecast
* Obscure corners of energy world benefit from West’s sanctions on Russian gas
* US homebuilder confidence falls below neutral 50 mark in September:

Oil prices edge up to highest level since November 2022. The US benchmark — West Texas Intermediate — closed above $90.58 a barrel on Monday. “The symbolically important $100 [a barrel of oil] mark is now being considered once more,” says Sophie Lund-Yates, an analyst at investment firm Hargreaves Lansdown in Britain. “This is a difficult development, with fuel accounting for a significant portion of overall inflation.”

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