Macro Briefing: 20 April 2023

* House Speaker McCarthy unveils debt-limit plan
* Treasury Sec. Yellen will call for better US-China relations in speech today
* New York Fed president outlines his support for another interest rate hike
* Record temperatures for 2023 are a possibility, climate scientists predict
* Bank of America CEO predicts a mild recession is coming
* Businesses report tougher access to credit, according to Fed’s Beige Book
* Policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield rebounds to 5-week high:

If a recession is coming, will the stock market avoid reaching a new trough? No, suggests history. Since 1929, US equities fell to a new low after a recession started. “Even a mild recession would warrant retesting the previous lows,” advises JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategist Marko Kolanovic. Credit Suisse Group AG strategists add: “We have never seen markets trough before the start of a recession.”