* Markets starting to realize that interest rates could stay higher for longer
* US Leading Economic Index for July continues to forecast elevated recession risk
* Philly Fed Mfg Index rebounds in August, hints at recovery for sector
* China property developer Evergrande files for bankruptcy in US
* US jobless claims edge down, continue to indicate labor market resiliency:
It’s been clear for some time that US recession risk has been sliding in recent months, but this week’s updates of a widely followed GDP nowcast published by the Atlanta Fed has been revised up – a lot – for the third quarter. According to this model, the US economy isn’t just rolling along at a moderate pace — it’s surging.
* Fed minutes minutes show officials see ‘upside risks’ to inflation
* More rate hikes possible, says former Fed Governor Randall Kroszner
* Atlanta Fed GDPNow model’s nowcast for US Q3 GDP surges to +5.8%
* Business inflation expectations fall “significantly” to 2.5% in Aug: Atlanta Fed
* China housing slump worse than official data show, according to property agents
* US industrial output rebounds sharply in July after two months of decline
* US housing construction recovers with strong gain in July
* 10-year US Treasury yield rises to 4.28%, highest in 15 years:
For much of the year the bond market has been embracing expectations that the Federal Reserve’s interest rates increases have peaked, or were about to peak. The underlying logic centered on the ongoing slide in inflation following 2022’s spike. Inflation has continued to ease, but the market has continually discovered that the future’s still uncertain as the Fed pushed ahead with more hikes.
* Fed official says “I think we’re a long way away from cutting rates”
* US real Treasury yields approach 14-year high
* China home prices drop for second month in July as sector’s headwinds build
* US homebuilder sentiment eases in August–first setback in 10 months
* New York Fed manufacturing activity fell more than forecast in August
* US retail sales rise more than forecast in July, advancing for fourth month:
Recession forecasts continue to swirl in some corners of the economics profession, but early econometric estimates for third-quarter GDP data suggest that the expansion will persist for now.
* Why did so many economists miss the “big disinflation”?
* Japan’s economic growth roars back in Q2 as exports surge
* China announces surprise interest rate cut amid struggling economy
* China halts publishing youth jobless rate data after it hits record high of 20%
* Wall Street sees low-priced commercial real estate as investment opportunity
* Fitch says it may downgrade dozens of banks, including JPMorgan Chase
* Russia’s central bank lifts interest rates sharply to combat sliding ruble
* 10-year US Treasury yield ticks up to 4.19%, highest since late-2022:
Most of the world’s markets are still posting sizable gains year to date, but the recent selling has claimed another victim for the loss column. As of Friday’s close, three of the 14 slices of the major asset classes are now underwater this year, based on ETF proxies through through Friday, Aug. 11. Two weeks ago, all the major asset classes were enjoying gains in 2023.
* China’s economic slowdown will affect big US firms operating there
* China’s property woes deepen as property developer suspends trading of bonds
* China vows ‘forceful’ response to Taiwan VP’s US visit
* Smaller nations are being left behind in new world economic order
* US consumer sentiment mostly unchanged in August, near historical average
* “A default cycle has started,” says Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo
* Russian ruble falls to 17-month low vs. the US dollar
* Large-cap growth stocks (VUG) are crushing value shares (VTV) this year:
Manisha Thakor
Q&A with author via CNBC
Q: What is the “never enough” mindset?
A: I define the “never enough” mindset as a feeling that no matter how many accomplishments you achieve or how much praise you receive, it just feels like it’s never enough. And you feel almost compelled in a subliminal, toxic way to keep chasing after these things. No matter how many of them you receive, it just doesn’t seem to quench the need.
