The long-run performance for the Global Market Index (GMI) rose to a 6.3% annualized pace in June, moderately above the previous month’s estimate. The shift marks the second month of firmer estimates. The forecast is based on the average estimate for three models (defined below) and remains near the lower range for realized performance in recent history, based on a rolling 10-year return.
Macro Briefing: 5 July 2023
* Global manufacturing activity continues to contract modestly in June
* US preparing limits on Chinese firms’ access to US cloud-computing services
* China’s export controls on metals used in semiconductors is “just a start”
* Rate hikes aren’t fully taming inflation, at least not yet
* Oil prices stall despite OPEC’s extension of production cuts
* Eurozone economy “grinds to a halt” in June: PMI survey data
* China economic growth eases to slowest pace since January via PMI survey data
* US manufacturing slump deepens in June via ISM Manufacturing Index:
Happy 4th Of July!
There are no guarantees. On the other hand…
Major Asset Classes | June 2023 | Performance Review
Global markets rebounded in June after widespread losses in May, based on a set of proxy ETFs. The downside outlier to last month’s rally for the major asset classes: US bonds, which continued to lose ground.
Macro Briefing: 3 July 2023
* Treasury Secretary Yellen will visit China this week
* Is the US payrolls survey overestimating the labor market’s strength?
* Automakers pushed into lithium mining to compete in electric vehicle market
* China factory activity remains sluggish in June via PMI survey data
* Does AI signal the start of fourth industrial revolution–or is it a bubble?
* Apple becomes world’s first $3 trillion company based on market cap
* Will the US avoid a recession this year? Economists are still debating
* US stock market begins trading this week at 14-month high:
The Independence Day Holiday Starts Early…
The birthday celebration for US independence starts early this year at The Capital Spectator. The usual routine returns on Wednesday, July 5. Cheers!
Macro Briefing: 28 June 2023
* Biden unveils “Bidenomics” re-election pitch to voters
* US reviewing new restrictions on AI chip exports to China
* Will exports pull China out of its economic slowdown?
* US Consumer Confidence Index rises to 17-month high in June
* US home prices post first year-over-year decline in 11 years in April
* US nearshoring push helps lift Mexico exports to near-record level
* Walgreens stock falls as company warns consumers pull back on spending
* Fed funds futures price in moderately high odds for another 1/4-point rate hike:
Key Market Price Ratios Still Suggest Risk-On Bias Persists
The US stock market has pulled back after briefly hitting a 14-month high on June 16, but there’s still a case for expecting the recent revival in risk-on sentiment to roll on and push markets higher in the near term.
Macro Briefing: 27 June 2023
* Russia appears to resolve stand-off with Wagner paramilitary force
* Central banks should keep rates higher for longer, says IMF chief
* Banking crisis isn’t over — inflation is key factor, advises head of BIS
* Recession forecasts still premature, says economist at Renaissance Macro, but…
* HSBC predicts US recession will start in the fourth quarter
* Major banking reforms advance in Congress
* Japan government to buy semiconductor materials giant for $6.3 billion
* Digital asset inflows surge after BlackRock’s bitcoin ETF filing:
Global Markets Fell Last Week After 3-Week Rally
The Global Market Index fell 1.7% last week (through June 23), marking the first decline for this multi-asset-class benchmark since the final week of May.