* More rate hikes expected no matter what today’s US inflation data reveals
* Possible UPS strike would be “disruptive” for US economy
* Auto industry prepares for contentious talks with unions
* Demand for lithium and other critical minerals is surging, IEA says
* Housing market may be near inflection point as prices look set to spike
* Variations for measuring inflation stir debate on which metrics are best
* World expected to consume more oil than it produces in 2023
* US Dollar Index trades near lowest level in over a year:

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New York Fed President John Williams says “I don’t have a recession in my forecast.” Neither does CapitalSpectator.com. That’s not blind adherence to a central banker’s prognostications. Rather, the view on these pages is based on the data. Not a single indicator, but a broad sweep of the numbers.

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* Sweden receives greenlight to join NATO after Turkey gives approval
* Fed officials say higher interest rates still needed to tame inflation
* Is China’s deflation risk a threat to world economy?
* German business sentiment weakens more than expected in July
* China’s economic troubles are boosting other Asian markets
* Fed Vice Chair Barr proposes stricter capital regulations on banks
* Major stock indices set “traps” for investors
* Should emerging markets be in your portfolio? “Maybe, but handle with care”:

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American shares eased last week, but the US stock market remains the clear leader for the major asset classes this year, based on a set of proxy ETFs through Friday’s close (July 7).

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* Joe Biden arrives in UK ahead of this week’s NATO summit in Lithuania
* Yellen says China talks ‘productive’ after meeting in Beijing
* This week’s US inflation report will bring new clues for Fed rate hike outlook
* China on brink of deflation
* US banks set to report biggest loan losses since pandemic
* Don’t rule a US recession out just yet, says Treasury Sec. Yellen
* US private-sector hiring in June eases to slowest pace in 2-1/2 years:

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● The Art of Risk: What We Can Learn From the World’s Leading Risk-Takers
Richard Harris
Summary via publisher (Simon & Schuster)
In this ultimate armchair adventure, Harry takes us into the lives of other ‘risk-takers’, to find out why they do what they do. We meet people adventuring from the highest skies to the deepest oceans – BASE jumpers, drag racers, snipers and surfers – including climber Alex Honnold (from the movie Free Solo), sailor Jessica Watson, film director and deep-sea diver James Cameron. Each gripping story is a masterclass in risk from the experts: when to go, when to say no, how to prepare and above all, how pushing ourselves a little further helps us become more courageous and resilient in all of our challenges.

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Update: see the Labor Dept’s payrolls data for a comparison vs. ADP’s estimate at chart at end of this article.

Yesterday’s news that US companies accelerated hiring in June strengthens confidence that the Federal Reserve will continue to lift interest rates to tame inflation. In turn, equity risk factors with the strongest gains this year may be vulnerable if a renewed run of hawkish monetary policy unfolds.

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* Yellen criticizes China on actions against US companies
* Global economic activity eases to four-month low in June via PMI survey data
* US services sector growth strengthened in June
* US job openings fell in May, indicating labor market tightness is easing
* Jobless claims in US edge up but remain steady at modest level
* US private payrolls surged in June, ADP reports:

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Second-quarter economic activity has picked for the US, based on the median estimate via several sources compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. The firmer nowcast offers fresh support for expecting that the US economy will extend a moderate expansion into Q2 in the official quarterly report that’s scheduled for release later this month.

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* Treasury Secretary Yellen arrives in Beijing for talks on US-China relations
* Federal judge limits White House interactions with social media policy
* Fed officials see more rate hikes ahead, minutes show
* New US vehicle sales rise 13% in first half of year–ahead of expectations
* How long can Germany’s business model rely on China?
* Meta launches Threads, a rival to Twitter
* US factory orders rise for third straight month in May, but fall vs. year-ago level
* US 10-year Treasury yield rises to four-month high on Wednesday:

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