* Federal Reserve expected to skip rate hike in today’s policy announcement
* Rising stock market implies monetary policy isn’t tight enough to tame inflation
* US economy may be “slipping into an expansion”, says fund manager Tom Lee
* Decoupling from China would be “disastrous”, says Treasury Sec. Yellen
* Global oil demand to peak around 2028 as energy transition unfolds, IEA says
* Eurozone industrial output rebounds in April but outlook remains cautious
* UK economy bounced back in April, expanding 0.2%
* Small business sentiment ticks up in May, but remains near multi-year low
* US consumer inflation eases to 4% annual pace in May–lowest in over 2 years:

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Investors are celebrating what some say is a new bull market for the broad US equities market, but the party remains on ice for commercial property shares.

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* China unexpectedly cuts key interest rate amid concerns of slowing growth
* US junk loan defaults rise sharply as higher interest rates take a toll
* Japan’s Nikkei 225 stock index rises to highest level since 1990
* A sharp downturn in commercial real estate would threaten big banks
* US regulators seek to block Microsoft’s Activision takeover
* Consumer inflation expectations for year-ahead outlook ease in May: NY Fed

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Buyers pushed up prices for most of the major asset classes last week. US bonds were the downside outliers, based on a set of ETFs through Friday’s close (June 9).

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* Inflation forecasts show pricing pressure easing slowly in May
* Bond investors disagree with Goldman Sachs’ low-recession forecast for US
* Despite recession warnings in key indicators, US stocks keep rising
* China faces economic headwinds as paying down debt picks up speed
* Manufacturers around the world are struggling with lower demand for products
* US House of Representatives paralyzed from conservative revolt
* Silicon Valley considers if technology has reached the point of singularity
* US stock market closed at 10-month high on Friday:

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● Chaos Kings: How Wall Street Traders Make Billions in the New Age of Crisis
Scott Patterson
Review via The New York Times
The world Patterson portrays is largely divided among two camps: investors who subscribe to Taleb’s “Black Swan” philosophy of financial markets as vulnerable to unforeseeable shocks and those more convinced by the French researcher Didier Sornette’s “Dragon Kings,” anomalous but somewhat foreseeable events. Sornette, who steadfastly believes in “pockets of predictability,” finds Taleb and his partner Mark Spitznagel’s credo a touch too woo-woo. “Quants,” the financial engineers who trust complex formulas to tell them what the future holds — and who are the focus of another book by Patterson — are the extreme foil to both groups.
“The Black Swan concept is dangerous,” Sornette tells Patterson. “It puts us back at the time of pre-science where the wrath of nature, the lightning, the storms were the expression of the anger of the gods.”

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The US stock market closed on Thursday (June 8) with a 20% gain above its previous low in October, triggering announcements by a number of analysts that a new bull market has started. Let’s dig into the details and commentary for some perspective.

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* Trump indicted in in classified documents probe by federal investigation
* Fed expected to pause rate hikes next week via survey of economists
* Resilient US economy raises uncertainty for Fed policy path
* Labor slowdowns at West Coast ports causing new supply chain disruption
* Middle-income buyers face a severe housing shortage
* China faces deflation risk: 1-year producer prices fall at steepest pace in 7 years
* US jobless claims rise to highest since October 2021:

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Shares of technology firms, along with digital communications and consumer discretionary stocks, are the US equity market leaders by a wide margin in 2023, based on a set of ETF proxies. The rest of the field is far behind, with nearly half under water year to date, as of Wednesday’s close (June 7).

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* US trade deficit widened by the most in eight years in April
* Eurozone economy contracts slightly for second straight quarter in Q1
* Japan GDP growth revised sharply higher for Q1
* Yields rise around world as traders lean toward Fed hike by July
* US approaching “late, big-cycle debt crisis,” says Bridewater’s Ray Dalio
* Freight railroad alert issued as shippers fear more West Coast port tensions
* Nearly half of Gen X population unprepared for retirement, survey finds
* US economic growth still expected to pick up in Q2 via GDPNow model:

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