* Cleveland Fed President reaffirms central bank’s resolve to tame inflation and…
* Mester says Fed should raise and hold its target rate above 5%
* Eurozone economy expands at strongest pace since May 2022: PMI survey data
* Banking crisis not over yet, says JP Morgan’s Jamie Dimon
* Gold rises well above $2000 an ounce, near an all-time high
* Walmart lays off 2,000 workers at warehouses that fulfill website orders
* US job openings in February fall below 10 million for first time in 2 years:
Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 4 April 2023
The expected long-run return for the Global Market Index (GMI) held steady at 6.0% annualized in March, unchanged from last month and close to its trailing performance over the past decade. The forecast is based on the average estimate for three models (defined below).
Macro Briefing: 4 April 2023
* US debt-ceiling crisis is still approaching with few, if any, signs of progress
* China launches cybersecurity probe into US chipmaker Micron Technology
* World Bank warns of “lost decade” ahead for global growth
* Italy is first Western country to block AI chatbot ChatGPT
* Global manufacturing output rises for second month in March
* Interest rates for car loans reach record high
* US construction spending unexpectedly eased in February
* US ISM Mfg Index slides deeper in March, indicating contraction for fifth month:
Major Asset Classes | March 2023 | Performance Review
Most asset classes rebounded in March, led by inflation-indexed government bonds ex-US, based on a set of ETF proxies. The downside outlier: real estate shares in the US and around the world.
Macro Briefing: 3 April 2023
* Saudi Arabia and other major oil producers announce oil output cut
* Analysts predict oil at $100 per barrel after OPEC’s surprise output cut
* China factory growth stalled in March, according to PMI survey
* Eurozone factory output rises slightly in March via PMI survey data
* Credit risk for bonds matters again in the wake of banking turmoil
* “Dr. Doom” remains as gloomy as ever on the economic outlook
* Lake Tulare’s return in California will raise prices for variety of farm goods
* Fed’s preferred inflation metric eases but remains high:
Book Bits: 1 April 2023
● Gradual: The Case for Incremental Change in a Radical Age
Greg Berman and Aubrey Fox
Review via The Economist
Revolutionaries have the best slogans. The Bolsheviks shouted “Peace! Land! Bread!” Mao Zedong promised a “Great Leap Forward”. Che Guevara claimed to “tremble with indignation at every injustice”. Advocates of gradual change, by contrast, find it hard to compose a good rallying cry. No crowd ever worked itself into a frenzy chanting: “What do we want? Incremental reform! When do we want it? When budgetary conditions allow!”
But as Greg Berman and Aubrey Fox argue in “Gradual”, incrementalism works. Revolutionaries promise paradise but often bring about bloodshed, bread lines and book-banning. Humanity has grown more prosperous by making a long series of often modest improvements to an unsatisfactory status quo. The Industrial Revolution, despite its name, was not a single, sudden event but thousands of cumulative innovations spread across nearly a century. “Over time, incremental reforms can add up to something truly transformative,” note the authors.
Is The US Facing A Slow(er)-Moving Recession Threat? Part II
Yesterday’s post reviewed the mixed signals for US recession risk based on CapitalSpectator.com’s proprietary business-cycle indexes. Today’s follow-up will take a deeper look at the data set in search of insight for deciding what comes next.
Macro Briefing: 31 March 2023
* Trump indicted on criminal charges in New York
* Finland wins approval to join NATO
* Eurozone inflation falls sharply in March at headline level but core keeps rising
* Is the Fed trying to do too much all at once?
* China’s manufacturing activity expands at slower pace in March
* China consumer activity rises to highest level in over a decade in March
* Bank Borrowing from Fed falls further, a sign that bank crisis is easing
* US mortgage rates ease for third straight week
* US Q4 GDP growth revised down slightly to +2.6%
* US jobless claims continue to rise for year-over-year pace:
Is The US Facing A Slow(er)-Moving Recession Threat?
A number of usually reliable indicators in recent months have warned of elevated recession risk for the US, but so far the economy has proven resistant to the darker forecasts that are bubbling in some quarters.
Macro Briefing: 30 March 2023
* Taiwan president’s US visit could provoke strong China reaction, says analyst
* Wall Street Journal reporter arrested in Russia on charges of spying
* GOP bill in House aims to sharply increase US oil output
* Small banks losing deposits to larger institutions after SVB collapse
* Spain inflation falls to 19-month low
* AI starting to have impact on white-collar jobs
* Research suggests ChatGPT may provide assistance in portfolio management
* US pending home sales rise for third straight month in February: