US economic activity looks strong or weak, depending on the data sets you choose to craft a narrative. That’s always true in some sense for the simple reason: there’s always some slice of the economy bucking the broader trend. But this time is different because the degree of the conflicting signals is so stark.
Macro Briefing: 3 March 2023
* German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is meeting with Biden at White House on Friday
* Robust global economic data suggest central bankers need to raise rates further
* China business activity in services ‘rises sharply’ in February
* Eurozone business activity rebounds in February–fastest pace since June 2022
* Entire US Treasury yield curve now above 4%
* Average US 30-year mortgage rate rises above 7% again
* US jobless claims post downside surprise, highlighting labor market strength:
Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 2 March 2023
The Global Market Index’s (GMI) expected long-run performance held at 6.0% annualized in February, unchanged from last month, based on the average estimate for three models (defined below). Today’s revised outlook is slightly below the trailing 10-year return for GMI, an unmanaged, market-value-weighted portfolio that holds all the major asset classes (except cash).
Macro Briefing: 2 March 2023
* US 10-Year Treasury yield rises above 4% for first time since November
* Mortgage applications in US drop to 28-year low as rates rise
* Global manufacturing output rises in February after six months of decline
* Eurozone inflation eases in February but remains high at 8.5%
* Economists expect firmer economic growth in China for 2023
* US construction spending unexpectedly fell in January
* ISM Mfg Index ticks up in February but still shows sector contracting:
Major Asset Classes | February 2023 | Performance Review
After starting the new year with roaring gains, global markets whimpered in February, posting across-the-board losses, based on a set of proxy ETFs.
Macro Briefing: 1 March 2023
* US Treasury official goes to Beijing despite US-China tensions
* China’s mfg sentiment rebounds, reflecting strongest growth since 2012
* Euro area manufacturing production stabilizes in February: PMI sentiment
* US home prices fell for sixth-straight month in December
* Chicago PMI continues to indicate weak business-activity conditions in February
* US Consumer Confidence Index eased again in February:
High Beta And Small Value Maintain 2023 Lead For Equity Factors
The strong outperformance of high-beta stocks shows no sign of relinquishing leadership in the US equities market this year, based on a set of ETF proxies through Monday’s close (Feb. 27).
Macro Briefing: 28 February 2023
* UK and EU announce deal on thorny Northern Ireland border
* China’s approval of new coal plants surged in 2022, report says
* Will the clean-energy future arrive by drilling for hydrogen?
* US cyber chief says companies need to do more to boost security
* Coinbase will suspend trading of Binance USD stablecoin
* Some bosses say they’re set to replace workers with AI
* US core durable goods orders in January rise the most in five months
* Decline in Texas factory factory deepens in February
* US pending home sales rebound sharply in January:
Across-The-Board Losses For The Major Asset Classes Last Week
Sellers took a toll on all the major asset classes last week, based on a set of ETF proxies.
Macro Briefing: 27 February 2023
* If China sends lethal aid to Russia, it would incur ‘real costs’, US warns
* Moldova worries it could be Russia’s next target for a Crimea-style annexation
* US Energy Dept says covid probably came from lab leak
* Will cyberattacks on Albania, a NATO country, trigger an alliance response?
* Even uber-investor Warren Buffett wasn’t immune from market losses in 2022
* US economic data is mixed, but economists still expect recession: NABE survey
* Policy-sensitive 2-year US Treasury yield breaks out to 16-year high:
