* US looks set to further restrict tech exports to China after balloon incident
* Russia will cut oil output by 5% in response to West’s price cap
* UK economy stagnates in Q4
* China inflation edges higher as economy reopens
* Recession risk for US appears to be falling, analysts predict
* Will the rush into artificial intelligence be the next bubble on Wall Street?
* US Energy Dept. will loan $2 billion to battery recycling firm
* Yahoo reportedly will cut 20% of its staff this year
* US jobless claims remain low, but are rising again on a year-over-year basis:

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This year’s rebound in asset prices around the world suggests that investor sentiment is shifting to risk-on after a year of playing defense. Trying to divine the future for pricing is always precarious, especially in the near term. But there’s no charge for looking at proxies of key market trends through various ETF pairs. As we’ll see, certain slices of markets are predicting a new bull run, but it’s still early to ring the all-clear signal, according to a broad measure of US stocks relative to US bonds, which is arguably a more reliable indicator. But let’s start with the sizzle.

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* US-China tensions are high, but so is commerce between the two nations
* Fed officials reaffirm that higher rates needed to tame inflation
* China deploys surveillance balloons worldwide, say US officials
* Disney announces 7,000 job cuts as streaming business falters
* Credit Suisse reports huge annual loss as it continues with reforms
* Mortgage refinance demand ticks up as mortgages rate fall for fifth week
* JPMorgan reportedly cuts hundreds of mortgage employees
* Commodities prices near lowest level in over a year:

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Depending on the source, the preliminary estimates for US economic activity in this year’s first quarter are encouraging, mediocre or distinctly bearish, based on a set of nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. But it’s still early in the quarter and it’s best to look at the numbers with a hefty dose of caution at this point.

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* Biden outlines his economic agenda in State of the Union speech
* Death toll from Syria-Turkey quake keeps rising, close to 10,000
* Fed’s Powell gives hawkish speech but investors stay bullish
* Shipping giant Maersk expects global trade to shrink by as much as 2.5% in 2023
* Inflation’s “worst is behind us”, says Charles Schwab’s top fixed-income strategist
* Zoom is latest tech firm to announce big layoffs
* US trade deficit widens in December–reaches record high for 2022
* US junk bond yield spread stays low despite surge in tighter lending standards:

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The US stock market rally this year continues to be led by so-called high-beta stocks, which are outperforming the broad market by a wide margin, based on a set of proxy ETFs through Monday’s close (Feb. 6).

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* Death toll rises above 5000 in Turkey-Syria earthquake
* US economy is key challenge for Biden in tonight’s State of Union address
* GOP House Speaker McCarthy calls on Biden to agree to spending cuts
* Chinese search engine giant Baidu’s shares surge after AI bot announcement
* Google set to launch Bard, an artificial intelligence bot to rival ChatGPT
* CVS set to acquire primary-care provider Oak Street Health for $10.5 billion
* Market breadth improves in this year’s stock market rally
* Policy-sensitive 2-year US Treasury yield rises to one-month high:

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American shares rallied for a second week, leading an uneven trading week for the major asset classes through Friday’s close (Feb. 3), based on a set of ETFs.

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* China calls for calm after US shoots down suspected spy balloon
* Powerful earthquake kills 1,300 people in Turkey and Syria
* Has a new cycle of growth started for the US economy?
* Global green trade and subsidy war is accelerating
* China’s reopening will boost global growth this year
* Dell announces layoffs in latest round of cuts in tech industry
* Speculative stocks are leading the stock market’s rally this year
* US payrolls blindsides economists, partly due to seasonal adjustment
* Fed funds funds futures pricing in higher odds of two more 1/4-point rate hikes:

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● The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism
Martin Wolf
Review via The Economist
For anyone old enough to remember the fall of communism, recent history has been something of a shock. The triumph of liberal political and economic systems has been spoilt: by rich-country blunders, the rise of authoritarian China, and ultimately by a distressing loss of faith in democracy itself in what was once called the free world. This crisis of democracy looks less dire than it did a year or two ago, thanks to political change in America and missteps by China and Russia. But the danger has not passed, and the need to understand democracy’s retreat remains urgent.

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