Nearly all the major asset classes posted solid gains in the kickoff to the new year, based on a set of proxy ETFs. The lone exception: commodities.
Macro Briefing: 9 January 2023
* Thousands of protesters storm Brazil’s government buildings
* Biden meets with Mexico president today: focus on migration, supply chains
* Precarious GOP House majority raises risk of debt-ceiling battle
* China stages large-scale military exercises around Taiwan
* This week’s consumer inflation report will influence size of next Fed rate hike
* Tech industry layoffs are accelerating
* Goldman Sachs to start cutting thousands of jobs this week
* Eurozone unemployment rate holds at record low in November: 6.5%
* Gold rises to eight-month high in early Monday trading:
Book Bits: 7 January 2023
Mordecai Kurz
Summary via publisher (Columbia U. Press)
Kurz demonstrates that technological market power tends to rise, increasing inequality of income and wealth. Unchecked inequality threatens the foundations of democracy: public policy is the only counterbalancing force that can restrain corporate power, attain more egalitarian distribution of wealth, and make democracy compatible with capitalism. Presenting a new paradigm for understanding today’s vast inequalities, this book offers detailed proposals to redress them by restricting corporate mergers and acquisitions, reforming patent law, improving the balance of power in the labor market, increasing taxation, promoting upward mobility, and stabilizing the middle class.
Upbeat Q4 GDP Nowcasts For US Conflict With Recession Warnings
Several estimates of fourth-quarter economic activity for the US have turned higher recently. The improvements clash with ongoing recession forecasts, but for the upcoming Q4 report the outlook remains positive, based a set of estimates compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.
Macro Briefing: 6 January 2023
* House remains paralyzed as McCarthy fails to win vote for 3rd day
* Ukraine dismisses Putin’s Russian Orthodox Christmas truce
* Global economic activity continues to contract in December via PMI survey data
* US trade deficit narrows sharply on cooler global demand
* Eurozone inflation eases as prices for energy retreat
* US jobless claims fall to four-month low
* US hiring by companies rebounds in December via ADP estimate:
Fed Pivot Watch: 5 January 2023
The Federal Reserve appears to be approaching the end of its rate-hiking policy, based on estimates from the bond market and economic conditions. But there’s a wild card that could derail the forecast: inflation stays elevated for longer than currently expected.
Macro Briefing: 5 January 2023
* No speaker elected in House after second day
* Until a speaker is elected, normal House governing activity isn’t functioning
* Inflation has not “turned the corner yet,” says IMF official
* Amazon will layoff 18,000 workers, biggest cut in tech recently
* China economy continues contract, mildly, in December via PMI survey data
* China accused of “under-representing” severity of its Covid outbreak, says WHO
* US job openings remain high in November, highlighting tight labor market
* Fed officials expect higher rates for ‘some time’, according to minutes
* US ISM Mfg Index falls again in December, marking second month of contraction:
Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 4 January 2023
The expected long-run return for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked lower in December, slipping below 6% annualized, based on the average forecast for three models. Today’s estimate is roughly in line with the trailing 10-year return for GMI, an unmanaged, market-value-weighted portfolio that holds all the major asset classes (except cash).
Macro Briefing: 4 January 2023
* House adjourns without picking a speaker, marking chaotic opening
* New Covid-19 variant has ‘alarming’ immunity evasion, experts advise
* US Treasury yields fall as demand for safe-haven bonds rebound
* Natural gas prices decline amid forecasts of warmer weather
* UK expected to suffer deepest recession in 2023 among G-10 nations
* Global mfg downturn continues in December, based on PMI survey data
* Eurozone recession eases and inflation cools in December via PMI survey data
* US manufacturing recession deepens in December via PMI survey data:
Major Asset Classes | December 2022 | Performance Review
Losses dominated market activity for the major asset classes in 2022. Commodities and cash are the exceptions. The rest of the field lost ground last year, in some cases by hefty degrees, based on a set of proxy ETFs.