* Final Fed rate hike expected, according to new Bloomberg survey of economists
* Recession risk still looks low for the US economic outlook
* Just 1% of all US homes change hands in first half of 2023, lowest in a decade
* Net inflows into Chinese stocks falls below other Asian markets
* China’s use of coal for energy is deepening
* TSMC, world’s largest chipmaker, reports 10% drop in Q2 profits vs. year ago
* US housing starts fall more than forecast in June:
* Extreme heat bakes large parts of the US, Europe and Asia
* Will China deflation/disinflation soon be exported to the rest of the world?
* Investment banking, trading downturn ‘bottomed’, says Morgan Stanley chief
* US GDP growth set to pick up in Q2: Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model
* Wave of corporate bankruptcies brewing as easy money era fades
* US homebuilder sentiment edges up in July, highest level since June 2022
* US industrial output falls for second month in June
* US retail sales rise for third month, reflecting slow but resilient spending trend:
One of Wall Street’s famous maxims is that bull markets climb a wall of worry. On that score there’s no shortage of real and potential hazards lurking. But as recent history suggests, the crowd isn’t intimidated, at least not yet. Quite the opposite, in fact, as investor sentiment seems to have been stoked in favor of buying, according to various trend profiles in markets around the world that point to price strength that highlights risk-on positioning.
* Victory still not imminent on inflation war, advise economists
* Teamsters president asks White House not to intervene in looming UPS strike
* JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs lower US recession odds
* Slower China growth not a first-order risk for America, according to US officials
* Russia steps up economic war on West by seizing assets of two companies
* CNN Money Fear and Greed index stays in “Extreme Greed” zone on Monday
* US housing market recession appears to be fading
* US chip industry presses Biden to refrain from additional China curbs
Across-the-board rallies in all the major asset classes last week strengthened year-to-date performances in markets around the world, based on a set of ETFs. The downside outlier: a broad measure of commodities, which continues to post a moderate loss so far in 2023 as of Friday’s close (July 14).
* Market’s high weights in big stocks suggest investors uncertain on economy
* China GDP growth for Q2 rises substantially less than forecast
* Analysts cut China growth outlook after disappointing Q2 data
* Russia suspends grain deal that allowed Ukraine exports to world
* As the demographics of aging unfold, it will reshape the global economy
* Markets cautiously optimistic that inflation will continue to ease
* Equity strategists lift S&P 500 earnings forecasts
* US stocks (S&P 500) on Friday closed at highest weekly high since March 2022:
Richard Vague
Summary via publisher (U. of Pennsylvania Press)
When we talk about debt and its impact on our economy, we almost always mean “government debt.” However, this is only a small part of the picture: individuals, private firms, and households owe trillions, and these private debts are vital to understanding the economy. Author Richard Vague examines the assets, liabilities, and incomes of the entire country, private and public sector, to reveal its net worth. His holistic analysis shows that the real factor that drives both financial crises and spiraling inequality—but also, paradoxically, economic growth—is ever rising private debt. The paradox is that while debt is essential and our economy relies on it, it also brings instability unless it is periodically deleveraged—and that is very hard to do. It can, however, be carefully managed, and Vague ends the book by showing how to do so in policy areas ranging from trade and housing to financial policy and student debt.
This week’s news on consumer inflation supports the case for expecting that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes are approaching the end game. The basic calculus is that are disinflation persists, the odds rise that the central bank will pause its policy of tightening monetary policy.
* Falling US dollar is boost for risk assets across the globe
* US federal deficit surges in first nine months of fiscal year
* Soft landing odds rise for US economy after release of inflation data for June
* Wholesale inflation barely rose in June vs. year-ago level
* Too early to declare victory on inflation, says SF Fed president
* US jobless claims tick down, holding near multi-decade low:
The 10-year Treasury yield looks elevated relative to CapitalSpectator.com’s fair-value modeling. But after yesterday’s news that US consumer inflation fell more than expected in June, the relatively wide spread will likely narrow in the months ahead.
