* Russia’s energy influence over Europe is “over,” predicts analyst
* Global bonds market in first bear market in a generation
* US mortgage rates up more than 50 basis points over past two weeks
* Global manufacturing output fell back into contraction in August via survey data
* US ISM Manufacturing Index steady in August, reflecting moderate growth
* Amazon’s efforts to block unionizing efforts appear to fail
* Big tech is looking to shift a portion of production out of China
* US jobless claims fell last week, easing to lowest level in two months:

Continue reading →

Newton famously stated that for every action in nature there is an equal and opposite reaction. The same can be said for the stock market, which is forever discounting the future, albeit imperfectly and sometimes with hefty and long-running doses of noise. Hold that thought as we update the numbers on the assumption that higher (lower) prices/valuations align with lower (higher) expected returns.

Continue reading →

* Shelling delays UN inspection of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant
* China locks down Chengdu metro area of 21 million people
* Hopes for Fed pivot fades, taking a toll on stocks
* Cleveland Fed President expects benchmark rate to rise above 4%
* China’s factory activity contracted in August, private survey finds
* Eurozone manufacturing contracts again in Aug via PMI survey data
* US imposes tighter restricts on computer chip sales to China
* Gold at six-week low amid stronger dollar and firmer outlook for rate hikes
* Risk of gold falling below $1,700 is limited, predicts Standard Chartered
* Hiring at US companies slows in August to smallest gain since January 2021:

Continue reading →

Federal Reserve Chair Powell says more “pain” is coming and the Treasury market believes him. The clearest sign of confidence in the central banker’s advisory is the renewed push higher in the 2-year Treasury yield, which is widely followed as a key benchmark for policy expectations.

Continue reading →

* Russia stops gas flow to Germany, allegedly for maintenance purposes
* Eurozone consumer inflation rises to new record high annual rate: +9.1%
* China factory activity contracted for a second month in August
* US life expectancy fell for a second year in 2021 due to Covid-19
* US dollar on track for third straight monthly gain vs. basket of currencies
* Growth of US home prices eased in June but annual pace is still strong
* US Consumer Confidence Index rose in August after three monthly declines
* US job openings rebounded in August, holding near peak level:

Continue reading →

Julian Robertson was one of the most successful investors of all time, perhaps the most successful. When he died last week, he left an investment legacy that will likely remain an exemplar of victory over market beta that few, if any, will be able to match in the years ahead. By one estimate, his Tiger fund generated a stellar 25% a year over two decades – a track record that easily puts Robertson in the highest ranks of alpha generators.

Continue reading →

Whenever I update CapitalSpectator.com’s long-term return forecasts for the major asset classes I sometimes receive emails from readers asking for comparable estimates for shorter-term horizons. My standard response: there’s already a fair amount of noise in the long-run outlook and the noise rises for shorter time horizons.

Continue reading →

* Violence rocks Iraq’s Green Zone amid violent protests
* Ukraine says new offensive in south is breaking through Russian defences
* France says Russia using energy supply as “a weapon of war”
* Pakistan’s planning minister says country’s floods will cost $10 billion
* US and China announce deal to avoid mass delistings of China stocks from US
* China bank scandal widens as hundreds are arrested
* Russia is raking in more money than ever from selling crude oil
* Global sea levels expected to rise nearly a foot due to Greenland ice losses
* Mortgage lender bankruptcies are rising
* Eurozone economic sentiment falls in August to 18-month low
* 3mo/10yr US Treasury yield stays positive — just barely:

Continue reading →

A broad measure of commodities sidestepped the widespread losses found elsewhere for most of the major asset classes during the trading week through Friday, Aug. 26, based on a set of ETFs.

Continue reading →

* Federal Reserve Chairman Powell says fighting inflation will bring ‘some pain’
* US gross domestic income suggests an economic stall vs. GDP recession
* Sen. Warren “very worried” that Fed rate hikes will “tip economy into recession”
* EU faces five to 10 terrible winters without cap on gas prices, says minister
* Economists cut growth outlook for China economy for full-year 2022 results
* US dollar reaches 20-year high amid expectations for more rate hikes
* German foreign minister says war in Ukraine “could last years”
* China push to become tech self-reliant remains an uphill battle
* Does Friday’s market rout point to a rough road ahead for stocks?
* US consumer spending growth slowed to a 7-month low in July:

Continue reading →