* Recession will strike one-third of countries in 2023, predicts IMF chief
* Leadership of House still uncertain as new Congress is set to convene
* Will the war in Ukraine accelerate India’s ascent?
* The worst may be over for Europe’s factory sector
* First regular shipment of US liquefied natural gas arrives in Germany today
* Tech-industry worker layoffs are accelerating
* Tesla’s Elon Musk is first person ever to lose $200 billion in wealth
* Largest US oil firms refocus on developing supplies in Western Hemisphere
* China economic activity continues to slow in December via PMI survey data:

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Here’s the second installment to Best of Books 2022. Last week we reviewed highlights from this column over the past year. With just hours to go before 2022 goes dark, here’s the second batch of books that captured our attention over the preceding 12 months. Cheers!

● The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest
Edward Chancellor
Review via The Economist
The critics who label as artificial the low interest rates that have prevailed in the world economy in recent decades must therefore answer the question: low relative to what?
“The Price of Time” is the answer of Edward Chancellor, a historian and financier who has written a book by that name. Humans prefer jam today to jam tomorrow. Interest rates are the reward for deferring gratification, for renting out money that could have been spent today. When rates fall too low, grave consequences follow: financial instability, higher inequality and pain for savers. As he makes his case, Mr Chancellor’s panoptic survey of the history of interest, and what classical economists said about it, will not fail to dazzle. The argument, however, is seriously flawed.

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With one trading day left in 2022, the US bond market is set to record a deep loss for the year.

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* Biden signs $1.7 trillion spending bill and avoids government shutdown
* Xi and Putin speak via video to highlight Russia-China partnership
* Risk is low that a dangerous new Covid-19 variant is spreading in China
* Estimating China’s covid outbreak is a scientific guessing game
* Vietnam’s economy defies world trend and grows sharply in 2022
* Over half of 50 US states showing signs of slowing economic activity
* Small-business owners say hiring and retaining workers is getting easier
* US mortgage rates rebound after falling for six straight weeks
* US jobless claims (unadjusted) continue to rise vs. year-ago level:

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Annual returns for equity sectors are always a study in contrasts, but the blowout performance of energy stocks in 2022 is unusually divergent vs. the rest of the field, based on a set of proxy ETFs.

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* Russia launches yet another massive missile barrage across Ukraine
* US requires negative Covid test for travelers from China
* Forecasts of a global recession may be premature
* Consumers have been key to economic growth this year. Can it last?
* European natural gas prices fall to pre-Ukraine war levels
* Investors expect that the US dollar’s strength has peaked
* ExxonMobil sues EU to block new energy windfall tax on oil companies
* US pending home sales in November fall to second-lowest level on record:

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Investing in US stocks by way of risk factors has been a humbling experience this year. Short of a miraculous rally between now and Friday’s close, this realm of financial engineering is on track to dispense black eyes all around, based on a set of proxy ETFs.

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* Supreme Court rules that US can not halt the expulsion of migrants
* US holiday sales up 7.6% despite inflation, credit card data show
* Attacks on US energy infrastructure in 2022 highest since 2012
* Russia bans sale of its oil to countries imposing price cap
* Hardline positions by Ukraine and Russia suggest peace talks are far off
* Economist expects decade of slow growth for global economy
* Dallas Fed Mfg Index rebounds in December
* Growth rate for US home prices continues to decelerate in October:

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Dismissing asset allocation as ineffective has become popular in some circles in recent years, but the charge is demonstrably false. The evidence to the contrary is especially conspicuous in 2022, which is on track to dispense an unusually wide range of returns for the calendar year’s that nearly run out of road. The implication: opportunity has been unusually high within the realm of asset allocation.

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