* Putin says peace talks with Ukraine are at dead
* Will modest rate hikes tame inflation? Think again, says top Fed official
* Inflation wave starting to reach Asia
* China Covid lockdowns risk triggering new global supply-chain problems
* US Inflation Savings Bonds set to yield above 9%
* Small business optimism index falls to lowest in nearly two years in March
* US consumer inflation up more than expected in March, up 8.5% from year ago:
The upcoming first-quarter report on US economic output is expected to post the softest gain since the recovery from the coronavirus recession began in the second half of 2020.
* Ukraine asks for financial support to ensure country’s ‘survival’
* Biden urges India’s prime minister to reduce purchases of Russian oil
* US orders non-emergency government staff to leave Shanghai due to Covid-19
* High inflation is conspicuous throughout the global economy
* US 10-year Treasury yield rises to highest level in over three years
* Economists estimate US consumer inflation reached new 40-year high in March
* Recession obsession is breaking out everywhere
* Pakistan parliament elects new prime minister
* S&P says Russia has defaulted on its debt
* US Dollar Index remains strong, ticking up to new 2-year high:
The opening week of April was rough on the major asset classes, with the exception of commodities, based on a set of proxy ETFs through the close of trading on Friday, Mar. 8.
* New Russian assaults focus on eastern Ukraine
* French President Macron faces far-right Le Pen in presidential election
* Rise in US Treasury yields rippling through global markets
* US 10-year Treasury yield tops equivalent for China for first times since 2010
* Economists see a growing risk of a US recession
* It’s not a recession, it’s a ‘war-cession,’ says a leading strategist
* US mortgage payment-to-income ratio tops 29%, highest since 2007
* China continues to promote Russia’s propaganda on Ukraine war
* Economists expect US consumer inflation to accelerate further in March:
Antti Ilmanen
Summary via publisher (Wiley)
Investing Amid Low Expected Returns: Making the Most When Markets Offer the Least provides an evidence-based blueprint for successful investing when decades of market tailwinds are turning into headwinds. For a generation, falling yields and soaring asset prices have boosted realized returns. However, this past windfall leaves retirement savers and investors now facing the prospect of record-low future expected returns. Emphasizing this pressing challenge, the book highlights the role that timeless investment practices – discipline, humility, and patience – will play in enabling investment success. It then assesses current investor practices and the body of empirical evidence to illuminate the building blocks for improving long-run returns in today’s environment and beyond. It concludes by reviewing how to put them together through effective portfolio construction, risk management, and cost control practices.
The US 10-year Treasury yield continued rising on Thursday (Apr. 7), reaching 2.66% — the highest in over three years. The ongoing upside momentum suggests that the benchmark rate will continue to run higher. But as today’s update of CapitalSpectator.com’s fair-value model suggests, there may be limits to how far and how fast this crucial rate can rise.
* How will Jackson’s ascent to Supreme Court impact the country?
* UN suspends Russia from the organization’s human rights body
* US consumer debt ramped up in February
* Rising mortgage rates may be starting to push house prices lower
* China lockdowns for spreading Covid-19 lead to more supply-chain disruptions
* Global food prices reach new high, soaring at fastest monthly rate in 14 years
* US jobless claims fell to 166,000 last week–lowest since 1968
* 10yr Treasury yield continues rising, reaching 2.66%–highest in over 3 years:
In a series of articles I’ve looked at alternatives to the standard 60/40 stock/bond benchmark using mostly US securities (see links below). Let’s add another flavor to the analysis using a portfolio of China stocks and bonds.
* Ukraine asks NATO for more weapons as Russia regroups for new attacks
* Treasury Sec. warns of ‘enormous’ economic repercussions from war in Ukraine
* China warns US against House Speaker Pelosi visiting Taiwan
* Fed officials decide to shrink balance sheet soon, minutes indicate
* Fed funds futures pricing in relatively high odds of 50-basis-point rate hikes
* Big oil bosses say there’s no quick fix to oil shortage
* Senate expected to confirm Jackson to Supreme Court today
* Russia appears to default on its debt after payments made in roubles
* Global economic activity slowed in March via Composite PMI, a GDP proxy:
