US second-quarter growth estimates continue to decline, but the upcoming GDP report is still expected to post a materially higher growth rate over Q1’s gain, based on a set of recent nowcasts.
Macro Briefing: 8 July 2021
* Biden considers how to respond to latest ransomware attack
* Fed officials talked of tapering at last meeting
* US states sue Google over charges of abusing power with Play store
* Biden’s plan to raise taxes on wealthy, corporations running into challenges
* European Commission says economic outlook has improved
* Long-running drive to lower corporate taxes leaves payrolls taxes far higher
* US job openings ticked up to another record high in May:
The ETF Portfolio Strategist: 7 July 2021
It may be the most unanticipated rally of the summer, but there’s no denying the strength and breadth of the bond market’s surge of late.
Is The Rise In Treasury Yields Fading?
The 10-year Treasury yield fell sharply yesterday, dropping to 1.37% — the lowest since late-February. The ongoing decline offers more support for arguing that the reflation trade is fading.
Macro Briefing: 7 July 2021
* Tropical Storm Elsa batters Florida’s west coast
* Nuclear talks in doubt after Iran starts producing enriched uranium
* Claims of new Russia-linked computer hacking raises challenges for Biden
* US warship leads drills in Black Sea, Russia’s backyard
* North America experienced its warmest June on record
* Are rising gasoline prices a new headwind for US economy?
* Will winning streak for small-cap stocks continue?
* Global growth retreated to 3-month low in June but remained “strong”
* US growth decelerated in June but expansion remains “impressive”
* US Services PMI fell more than expected in June but still signals strong growth:
Major Asset Classes | June 2021 | Risk Review
Risk-adjusted performance for the Global Market Index (GMI) continued to push higher in June, based on the annualized Sharpe ratio (SR) for a rolling ten-year window via monthly data.
Macro Briefing: 6 July 2021
* Southern Florida braces for Tropical Storm Elsa
* Another ransomware attack compromises up to 1,500 businesses
* Chinese tech IPOs in US at risk as Beijing tightens regulations
* Oil at six-year high after Opec+ cancels meeting
* Hedge fund launches rose sharply in Q1 — the most since end of 2017
* Eurozone retail spending rose more than expected in May
* German investor confidence eases and factory orders retreat
* US jobs growth accelerated in June–biggest gain ten months:
The ETF Portfolio Strategist: 5 July 2021
Beta risk continued to beat our actively managed risk strategies last week. The outperformance was slight, but it’s enough to keep the global 16-fund opportunity set — Global Beta 16 (G.B16) — humming in the leadership position. This opportunity set represents the playfield field for the active strategy (see last table below for list of funds).
245 Years And Counting…
Book Bits: 3 July 2021
Benjamin Ho
Review via NPR
A new book by Benjamin Ho, Why Trust Matters: An Economist’s Guide to the Ties That Bind Us, argues the story of the economy — and all of human civilization, really — is the story of how we’ve evolved to trust larger and larger groups of strangers.
Human beings are social creatures. But our monkey brains are equipped to know and trust only a limited number of people. Around 150, according to the research of the British anthropologist and evolutionary psychologist Robin Dunbar. It’s known as Dunbar’s number. Dunbar argues it’s why we see 150 as a standard number for infantry units of militaries throughout history, and even the upper limit of people we regularly interact with on Facebook.