The baby and the bathwater: Risk-off dominated global market activity this week as investors dumped every slice of our standard lineup of the major asset classes as of today’s close (Oct 30).
Has The Decades-Long Slide In Treasury Yields Run Out Of Road?
Predicting the end of the secular decline in interest rates has been a hardy perennial — and perennially wrong. Given this history, any observer of bond yields must be wary of declaring that a 40-year trend has reached its end.
Macro Briefing: 30 Oct 2020
US economy posts dramatic rebound in Q3–GDP rose at record rate: CNBC
Analysts worry that US economic rebound is fading: BBC
Early US voting rises to a record 80 million: Reuters
US coronavirus cases rise above 89,000 a new record: BBG
Europe’s rising coronavirus infections and death are a warning for the US: WSJ
Jobless US workers face potentially massive defaults: Politico
Amazon expects $4 billion in Covid-19-related expenses: CNBC
US pending home sales fell in Sep after four straight monthly gains: Reuters
Big Tech’s profits continue to surge: NYT
US jobless claims continue to fall, dropping to pandemic low: CNBC
The S&P 500’s Latest Slide Vs. Rolling 1-Year Returns
Whenever breathless headlines shout danger and destruction for the stock market, my first reaction is to fire up R to update the perspective on the performance trend. After yesterday’s sharp correction in the S&P 500, which extends the recent downturn and leaves the index at a one-month low, it’s time again for a reality check if only to keep behavioral risk from running amuck.
Macro Briefing: 29 Oct 2020
Supreme Court OKs ballot extensions In Pennsylvania and North Carolina: NPR
Three dead in terrorism attack in France: CNBC
Europe issues warnings for health care system as coronavirus surges: AP
Big-Tech CEOs debate with Senators in hearing over free-speech issues: WSJ
US states face biggest cash crunch since Great Depression: WSJ
Record gain expected in today’s US GDP report for Q3: Reuters
The ‘nightmare scenario’–a long, contested US election outcome–is a risk: PS
US trade gap in goods narrowed slightly in Sep after record deficit: MW
US equities suffer biggest drop in four months: NYT
As US stocks tumble, VIX volatility index soars to four-month high: BBG
The ETF Portfolio Strategist: 28 Oct 2020
Coronavirus Bites Back… Again: It’s been tempting to think that the worst had passed. But health experts (at least the respectable ones) have been warning otherwise. Markets are deciding to take another look at the risks and reprice assets accordingly.
Africa, China Stocks Lead Global Equity Markets Bounce
Since global markets plunged during the coronavirus crash in March, all the world’s major equity regions have posted sharp rebounds. Leading the way: shares in Africa, followed by China and US stocks, based on a set of publicly traded funds through Oct. 27.
Macro Briefing: 28 Oct 2020
US coronavirus hospitalizations surge: Reuters
Covid-19 cases spike in swing states that will likely decide election: CNBC
Unrest in Philadelphia continues after police fatally shot a black man: BBC
Pre-election voting at 50%-plus of ballots cast in 2016 election: CNN
Germany considers shutting bars and restaurants for one month: BBG
Is the struggling rental market creating the next housing crisis? WSJ
Consumer Confidence Index for US ticks down in October: MW
US consumer confidence falls sharply in swing states in October: Reuters
Annual rise in US home prices in Aug accelerated to 5.7% annual gain: S&P
Mid-Altantic manufacturing activity strengthened in October: MSTAR
US durable goods orders rose 1.9% in Sep–fifth straight monthly gain: MW
Strong Rebound Expected For This Week’s US Q3 GDP Report
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis is on track to report that the economy posted a strong rebound in the third quarter in Thursday’s initial GDP estimate (Oct. 29). Most economists and nowcasting models are estimating a dramatic, perhaps record-setting increase in gross domestic product (GDP). There’s still uncertainty about Q4’s outlook, but confidence is high that this week’s GDP data will confirm that the economy mounted a dramatic rebound after Q2’s record loss.
Macro Briefing: 27 Oct 2020
Senate confirms Amy Coney Barrett to Supreme Court: CNBC
Supreme Court: Wisconsin mail-in ballots valid only if received by Nov 3: CNN
Russian air strikes in Syria kill 50-plus Turkish-backed fighters: BBC
China’s Ant Group expected to raise $34 billion in record IPO: WSJ
Pandemic moves Eurozone banks to tighten access to credit: Reuters
US new home sales slipped in Sep but remain strong: MW
Dallas Fed Mfg Index: Manufacturing Expands for fifth month in Oct: DF
Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index: US growth continued to slow in Sep: AP
