There are many reasons to question a bullish outlook at the start of the year, but the gravity-defying trend remains intact overall, based on a set of ETF pairs that track global asset allocation strategies through Friday’s close (Jan. 3). The analysis turns mixed, however, when analyzing markets on a more granular level.
Macro Briefing: 6 January 2025
US manufacturing’s contraction eased in December, according to the ISM Manufacturing Index. The survey-based indicator rose to 49.3 last month, the highest since March. Despite the improvement, the index remains below the neutral 50 mark and has reflected contraction for 25 of the past 26 months. Meanwhile, analysts at ING advise that “US manufacturing shows encouraging signs of life… after languishing for much of the past two years.”
Book Bits: 04 January 2025
● Prop Trading Secrets: How Successful Traders are Living off the Markets
Kathy Lien and Etienne Crete
Summary via publisher (Wiley)
In Prop Trading Secrets of Successful Funded Traders: How Individual Traders are using Proprietary Trading to Achieve Financial Freedom, Kathy Lien, author and managing director of FX strategy at BK Asset Management, and Etienne Crete, full-time trader and founder of Desire to Trade, deliver a collection of 14 revealing interviews with proprietary traders successfully making a living off the markets. You’ll explore insights from veteran traders with over 10 years’ experience in the markets, winners of a variety of trading championships, and contemporary prop traders using methods like funded accounts to trade other people’s money.
Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 03 January 2025
The expected return over the long run for the Global Market Index (GMI) held steady in December vs. the previous month. The unchanged forecast, based on three models defined below, reflects a second month with the highest return outlook in recent history for this multi-asset-class global benchmark.
Macro Briefing: 3 January 2025
US jobless claims fell to an 8-month low last week. “While last week’s data included a long holiday, the drop in new claims, the year’s first important piece of economic data, suggested that the labor market remains resilient,” writes an analyst RSM US LLP.
Major Asset Classes | December 2024 | Performance Review
US equities led global markets by a wide margin in 2024, a year of mixed results overall for the major asset classes, based on a set of ETFs.
Macro Briefing: 2 January 2025
The US stock market (SPY) ended 2024 with a strong 24.5% calendar-year total return. By contrast, US bonds (BND) posted a tepid gain last year of just 1.1%.
Holiday Hiatus 2024…
Posting will be light to mostly non-existent for the rest of the year. The Capital Spectator will return to the usual routine on Jan. 2. Best wishes to all our readers. Cheers!
US Stocks Set To Top Asset Class Returns For 2024
American shares are poised for another year of leading global markets by a hefty margin, based on a set of ETFs through Friday’s close (Dec. 20). Echoing results in 2023, US stocks in 2024 will likely take the performance crown with a red-hot gain for a second straight calendar year.
Macro Briefing: 23 December 2024
US consumer spending increased in November, reaffirming the economy’s resiliance. Personal consumption expenditures rose 0.4% last month, edging up from a 0.3% gain in the previous month. “The economy continues to grow from strong consumer demand as income growth and the wealth effect from higher portfolio values give consumers capacity to spend,” says Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial. “Inflation was more benign than expected but the stickiness of some categories supports the Fed’s hesitancy to materially lower rates next year.”
