By Tim Lee, et al.
Summary via publisher (McGraw-Hill)
Protect yourself from the next financial meltdown with this game-changing primer on financial markets, the economy—and the meteoric rise of carry. The financial shelves are filled with books that explain how popular carry trading has become in recent years. But none has revealed just how significant a role it plays in the global economy—until now. The Rise of Carry explains how carry trading has virtually shaped the global economic picture—one of decaying economic growth, recurring crises, wealth disparity, and, in too many places, social and political upheaval. The authors explain how carry trades work—particularly in the currency and stock markets—and provide a compelling case for how carry trades have come to dominate the entire global business cycle.
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Risk Premia Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 3 January 2020
The Global Market Index’s expected risk premium ticked higher again in December, marking the fourth straight monthly rise. The latest advance lifts GMI’s long-term ex ante return to an annualized 5.0% (before factoring in a “risk-free” rate).
Macro Briefing | 3 January 2020
Iran vows revenge after US strike kills top Iranian commander: Reuters
Will world economy suffer blowback following US strike on Iranian general? BBG
Some observers see dangerous escalation in US killing of Iranian general: CNBC
Oil prices surge, stock futures sink following US strike on Iranian: MW
US Mfg PMI continued to reflect modest rebound in December: IHS Markit
Job cuts in the US fell in Dec to lowest level since July 2018: CG&C
US jobless claims fell last week, close to 50-year low: MW
Major Asset Classes | December 2019 | Performance Review
It was a very good year for investors in 2019. So good, in fact, that it was impossible to lose money last year with simple buy-and-hold strategies that owned one or more of the major asset classes.
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Macro Briefing | 2 January 2020
Protests at US embassy in Iraq reflect Iran’s influence: NY Times
Taiwan’s top military chief among dead in helicopter crash: CNN
Israel’s Netanyahu seeks parliamentary immunity from prosecution: BBC
Hundreds of Hong Kong protesters arrested: Reuters
UK mfg output fell at fastest rate in 7-1/2 years in Dec: IHS Markit
Eurozone mfg recession continued in December: IHS Markit
China’s mfg sector continued to post a mild rebound in Dec: IHS Markit
Recession is a top concern for CEOs in 2020: WSJ
10yr Treasury yield ended 2019 near 5-month high:
That’s A Wrap For 2019
We’ve nearly run out of calendar and so it’s time for The Capital Spectator to put a fork in 2019. We’ll be back on Thursday, Jan. 2 with a new year and fresh numbers to slice and dice. Meantime, all the best for 2020. Cheers!
Across-The-Board Gains Last Week For The Major Asset Classes
A clean sweep of higher prices lifted all corners of the global markets for the shortened Christmas week of trading, based on a set of ETFs representing the major asset classes. The holiday rally through Dec. 27 is the latest installment in an extraordinary year that’s on track to deliver gains in everything once 2019’s final trade closes.
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Macro Briefing | 30 December 2019
US strikes Iran-backed militia forces in Iraq and Syria: USA Today
Iraqi militia leader vows response to US attacks: Reuters
Trump’s tweets name alleged whisteblower, unleashing new controversey: BBG
Democrats try to undercut Trump’s strong economy message in Iowa: NY Times
US wages rising at fastest pace in over a decade: WSJ
China boosts lending in a risky bid to support small business financing: FT
Japan’s stock market ends 2019 as a top regional performer: CNN
Extreme poverty in the world cut in half over the last decade: Axios
US manufacturing rebound appears to be fading, based on regional Fed indexes:
Best of Book Bits 2019 (Part II)
Following last week’s first installment of notable titles that found their way to The Capital Spectator’s weekly Book Bits column in 2019, here’s the second half of this absurdly subjective short list. Cheers!
Quality And Large Caps Are 2019’s Top Equity Factor Performers
All the major silos of US equity factors are posting solid gains this year, but nothing beats the so-called quality screen (stocks with strong fundamentals), based on a set of exchange traded funds. In close pursuit: large-cap shares.
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