Philippines bans 2 US senators, considers restrictions for Americans: Bloomberg
US warns China against coercing Taiwan: SCMP
ECB policymaker: return to positive rates unlikely in 2020: Reuters
Israel’s Netanyahu wins party vote ahead of probable election in March: Reuters
Syria’s advancing army in country’s northwest triggers mass exodus: LA Times
Japan will send destroyer to Middle East for intel gathering: Japan Times
Is the US-China trade war fading? Not for books: NY Times
Amazon reports new highs for holiday sales: WSJ
US jobless claims continue to fall after recent spike: CNBC

Incoming economic reports continue to show that US growth is holding steady at a moderate pace in the fourth quarter. A lot can change between today and Jan. 30, when the government’s initial Q4 GDP report will be published. But the data available today suggests that output will expand at or near Q3’s 2.1% increase.
Continue reading →

US holiday spending rises, thanks to e-commerce at record high: Reuters
China sails new aircraft carrier through Taiwan Strait: Reuters
GOP senator ‘disturbed’ by McConnell’s ‘coordination’ with White House: Politico
Births in Japan fall to lowest level since 1874: NY Times
Long-run secular inflation trend looks set to decline: Vanguard
Richmond Fed Mfg Index: sector activity fell for 2nd month in Nov: RF
Gold is trading above $1500, a seven-week high: Bloomberg

Christmas has come early to the world headquarters of The Capital Spectator, which can only mean one thing: Your editor is slipping out the door to beat the rush and commence the holiday festivities ahead of the crowd. We’ll be back at the grindstone on Thursday, Dec. 26 with a fresh spin on the post-holiday outlook. Meanwhile… Merry Christmas!

Real estate shares in the US and equities in emerging markets topped last week’s returns for the major asset classes, based on a set of exchange-traded funds. The main losers for the trading week through Friday, Dec. 20: foreign bonds.
Continue reading →

Is N. Korea planning a new hard-line anti-US policy? CNN
India’s Modi defends citizenship bill amid protests: BBC
China announces plans to cut import tariffs on wide range of goods: BBG
Russia vows to retaliate for US sanctions on new Russia-Germany pipeline: AP
Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimates Q4 growth at +2.1%, matching Q3: AF
NY Fed’s Q4 GDP nowcast revised up to still-weak +1.3%: NYF
US GDP growth remains at +2.1% for revised Q3 data: CNBC
US consumer spending’s 1-year trend ticked up to moderate +3.9% in Nov:

Another year over, which means it’s time for the annual look-back for The Capital Spectator’s weekly Book Bits column. In keeping with tradition, we’ll highlight ten titles that found their way to these pages over the course of 2019. The criteria that delivered the results below? Your editor found the books intriguing, entertaining and/or revealing for one reason or another. As usual, the short list will be carved into two equally digestible servings, starting with five today, followed with the balance next week. Happy reading!

Continue reading →

Value Bubbles
Messaoud Chibane and Samuel Ouzan (Neoma Business School)
February 27, 2019
According to several extended behavioral theories, value profits should mirror momentum profits, and vary over time. We test these theories in the cross section of returns. Value returns depend on market states. From 1926 to 2018, following negative market return, the average so-called value premium is about three time its unconditional counterpart, whereas it appears to vanish following positive market return. Moreover, several short episodes of extreme losses in momentum strategy (momentum crashes) are contemporaneous with extreme value profits (value bubbles). Our results are robust to various time varying risk- based explanations.
Continue reading →

House approves revised North American trade pact: WSJ
UK prime minister’s Brexit bill expected to pass in Parliament: CNBC
Diplomacy runs up against N. Korea’s Dec. 31 deadline for US talks: Reuters
US Leading Economic Index stabilized in Nov after falling for 3 months: CB
Existing home sales in US fell 1.7% in November: BH
Philly Fed Mfg Index: activity slowed in Dec to weakest growth in 6 months: PF
US jobless claims fell last week after spiking to 2-year high: MW

With only days left to the trading year, American shares look set to outperform the rest of the world’s major equity regions, based on a set of exchange-traded products listed in the US.
Continue reading →