With each passing month, the current US economic expansion sets a new record for duration (125 months and counting through November). That’s a good thing, of course, but for some analysts it’s a warning sign. Expansions, like milk and airline tickets, have a limited shelf life, or so this line of thinking goes. But the hard evidence to support this view is thin, particularly for the post-World War Two era. That doesn’t mean that recession risk is zero these days, or that storm clouds aren’t gathering. But expecting a downturn to start because the expansion’s clock has been ticking longer than before is mostly myth rather than fact.

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House to draw up articles of impeachment against Trump: Reuters
N. Korea reacts to Trump’s Nato comments with fiery rhetoric: USA Today
Opec and Russia plan on deeper oil-production cuts: CNBC
Germany’s industrial recession deepened in October: FT
Looking ahead to today’s November employment report: NY Times
Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model: Q4 GDP growth estimate ticks up to +1.5%: AF
US trade gap narrowed to 16-month low in Oct as Chinese imports decline: MW
Factory orders in the US rebounded in Oct after 2 monthly losses: Reuters
Job cuts in US fell 13% over the 12 months through November: CG&C
US jobless claims fell to a 7-month low last week: CNBC

Depending on the employment indicator, the US economic outlook is upbeat or worrisome. Focusing on yesterday’s ADP Employment Report for November leans toward the latter.

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China wants US tariffs cut before agreeing to a trade deal: Reuters
US considering new deployment of troops to Middle East to counter Iran: WSJ
Iran has secretly moved missiles into Iraq: NY Times
Eurozone retail spending fell more than forecast in October: MW
Japan is planning a $120 billion economic stimulus program: Reuters
Global economic growth remains slow but pace strengthened in Nov: IHS Markit
ISM Non-Mfg Index: US services sector slowed more than forecast: CNBC
Services PMI for US reflects modest growth in November: IHS Markit
US private employment growth slowed sharply in November: MW

Volatility has returned to the stock market this week after a couple months of relative calm. Not surprisingly, the sharp wave of selling on Monday and Tuesday has reordered the horse race for primary equity factors. As a result, the so-called quality factor is the last man standing for outperforming the broad market year to date, based on a set of exchange-traded funds.

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House impeachment report: Trump abused power: The Hill
Trump suggests US-China trade war could continue beyond 2020 election: WSJ
Despite recent tension, US and China reportedly closer to trade deal: BBG
Will a new round of US tariffs on Chinese goods roll out on Dec 15? CNBC
China Composite PMI for Nov shows solid rebound for economy: IHS Markit
Eurozone economy continued to post near-stagnant growth in Nov: IHS Markit
10-year Treasury yield falls sharply to 1.72% — lowest since Oct 31:

The outlook for the Global Market Index’s risk premium ticked higher for a third month in a row in November. The adjustment, due to evolving market conditions, lifted GMI’s expected long-term return to an annualized 4.9% (before factoring in a “risk-free” rate). The new estimate is fractionally above last month’s forecast (4.8%) and modestly higher vs. the year-ago estimate (4.6%). GMI is an unmanaged, market-value-weighted portfolio that holds all the major asset classes (except cash).

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US threatens new tariffs on French goods in response to digital tax: CNBC
France says it will retaliate over new US tariff threat: Bloomberg
Global Mfg PMI reflects growth in November–first gain in 7 months: IHS Markit
Is the fate of global economy tied to the health of US consumers?: Bloomberg
US construction spending fell in Oct but 1yr trend returns to growth
In contrast with ISM data (see below), US Mfg PMI rebounds in Nov: IHS Markit
US ISM Mfg Index continues to show mild contraction for sector in Nov: ISM

The US stock market was the clear performance leader for the major asset classes in November. The strong gain in American shares was all the more striking in a month that was otherwise skewed to the downside.
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UN chief: ‘War against nature must stop’: Reuters
China suspends US Navy visits to Hong Kong, sanctions US groups: Reuters
China’s mfg sector expanded by more than expected in Nov: CNBC
US mfg data in focus in today’s releases: CNBC
Euro area’s mfg sector continues to contract in November: IHS Markit
UK mfg contracts as Brexit uncertainty weighs on sector: IHS Markit
Global debt on track to rise to a record $255 trillion-plus in 2019: Bloomberg