The Global Market Index’s risk premium is expected to earn an annualized 4.8%, based on revised data through July. Today’s update is unchanged from last month’s analysis. GMI is an unmanaged market-value-weighted portfolio that holds all the major asset classes (except cash). The performance forecast for this passive benchmark represents the ex ante premium over the projected “risk-free” rate for the long term.

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China vows to respond to Trump’s new trade tariffs: CNBC
US pulls out of Cold War-era nuclear treaty with Russia: BBC
Japan expands trade restrictions on South Korea: NY Times
Eurozone retail spending rebounded in June: Reuters
Global mfg activity contracted for third month in July: IHS Markit
ISM Mfg Index for US fell to 51.2, lowest print since Aug 2016: CNBC
US Mfg PMI in July dropped to lowest level since Sep 2009: IHS Markit
Construction spending in US fell 1.3% in June vs. year-earlier level: HW
US jobless claims rose moderately last week, but labor mkt still tight: CNBC
US job cuts slowed in July, falling 7.5% vs. previous month: CG&C
Today’s July US private employment data set to hold at +1.7% annual rate:

US equities continued to lead the major asset classes in July. For a second straight month, the Russell 3000 Index posted the highest monthly return, closely followed by US real estate investment trusts (REITs).

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Highlights from last night’s Democratic debate: The Hill
Fed cuts interest rate by 1/4 point in ‘midcycle adjustment’: CNBC
US imposes sanctions on Iran’s forign minister: CNN
China’s factory activity contracted in July: CNBC
Eurozone mfg activity contracts sharply in July: IHS Markit
Brexit worries weight on UK mfg in July: Reuters
US labor costs rose at slowest pace in 1-1/2 years in Q2: Reuters
1yr trend for US private employment slips to +1.7%, a 20-month low: ADP

This year’s red-hot bond-market rally looks set for a new burst of bullish support if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates today, which is widely expected.

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Democrats clash in debate on health care: NY Times
Fed expected to cut interest rates today–first time since 2008: WSJ
US-China trade talks end in failure… again: Reuters
N. Korea fires missiles for a second time in a week: BBC
Political pressure builds as Congress considers $2.7 trillion budget deal: MW
US Consumer Confidence Index rebounded in July to highest level this year: CNBC
Case-Shiller index shows US home-price growth continued to slow in May: HW
US consumer spending and income rose moderately in June: Reuters
US private employment annual trend on track to slip to +1.7% in today’s ADP data:

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to trim interest rates tomorrow, and the prospect of low and possibly lower inflation in the months ahead is a key factor.

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Capital One, a major credit card issuer, suffers massive data breach: WSJ
Pound slides as Boris Johnson raises no-deal Brexit odds: Reuters
US-China trade talks begin with little fanfare and low expectations: SCMP
Japan’s industrial output fell more than expected in June: Bloomberg
Eurozone economic sentiment continued to slide in July: Reuters
German consumer confidence down for third month: Reuters
Texas mfg posted a slightly stronger gain in July: Dallas Fed
1yr growth for today’s June report on US consumer spending is expected to ease:

Equities in the US regained their mojo last week, posting the strongest gain among the major asset classes, based on a set of exchange-traded funds.

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US-China trade talks set to resume this week: WSJ
Fed expected to cut interest rates this week: Reuters
Former Fed Chair Yellen recommends a rate cut: CNBC
China warns that violent protests in Hong Kong won’t be tolerated: Bloomberg
China’s economy continued to slow in July: Bloomberg
Dan Coats, US director of nat’l intelligence, announces resignation: The Hill
A short list of indicators to watch for calling the next recession: NY Times
Real and nominal 1-year GDP growth for US eased to 2-year lows in Q2: