Did China come out on top after Trump-Xi G20 meeting? CNBC
Trump picks two nominees for Federal Reserve board: Bloomberg
IMF’s Christine Lagarde to lead European Central Bank: Reuters
Eurozone Composite PMI: ‘solid growth’ for June: IHS Markit
China’s economy slowed in June, weakest since last Oct: IHS Markit
1yr trend for US private payrolls projected to hold at +1.9%:
Risk Premia Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 2 July 2019
The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) edged up in June, rising to an annualized 4.8%. Today’s revision reflects a modest gain over last month’s 4.5% projection. GMI is an unmanaged market-value-weighted portfolio that holds all the major asset classes (except cash). The performance estimate for the benchmark represents the ex ante premium over the projected “risk-free” rate for the long term.
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Macro Briefing: 2 July 2019
US considers imposing new trade tariffs on Europe: WSJ
China condemns violent Hong Kong protests: Reuters
Slowdown in worldwide growth has been ‘deeper than expected’: BIS
Roubini, aka Dr Doom, sees global recession by 2020: Bloomberg
OPEC extends oil production cuts by 9 months: CNBC
US investment in private construction fell to 2-year low in May: CNBC
Global mfg sector contracts for second month in June: IHS Markit
PMI survey data point to sluggish growth in US mfg sector: IHS Markit
US ISM Mfg Index reflects slowest growth in over two years in June: MW
Major Asset Classes | June 2019 | Performance Review
Nirvana swept over global markets in June as all the major asset classes posted gains. Even more remarkable, last month’s across-the-board increases mark the second time this year that everything rose in a calendar month (January also generated a rally in everything).
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Macro Briefing: 1 July 2019
Trump: US-China trade talks ‘back on track’: Reuters
Opec expected to extend oil-production cuts: Reuters
Mfg activity contracted in Eurozone for fifth month in June: IHS Markit
China’s mfg sector contracted in June: IHS Markit
UK mfg recession deepens to biggest decline in 6 years: IHS Markit
Trade-war risk: the only threat for the US economy at the moment: CFA Inst
Chicago PMI fell below neutral 50 mark in June: ISM Chicago
Consumer Sentiment Index for US remained at elevated level in June: MW
US consumer spending continued to rise at moderate 1-year pace in May:

Book Bits | 29 June 2019
● Digital Cash: The Unknown History of the Anarchists, Utopians, and Technologists Who Created Cryptocurrency
By Finn Brunton
Summary via publisher (Princeton University Press)
The fascinating untold story of digital cash and its creators—from experiments in the 1970s to the mania over Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin may appear to be a revolutionary form of digital cash without precedent or prehistory. In fact, it is only the best-known recent experiment in a long line of similar efforts going back to the 1970s. But the story behind cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and its blockchain technology has largely been untold—until now. In Digital Cash, Finn Brunton reveals how technological utopians and political radicals created experimental money to bring about their visions of the future: protecting privacy or bringing down governments, preparing for apocalypse or launching a civilization of innovation and abundance that would make its creators immortal.
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Deep-Value ETF Report: The More Things Change…
Searching for value can be a profitable strategy, but patience is usually required, sometimes in industrial-level doses. Consider today’s update of The Capital Spectator’s semi-regular deep-value fishing expedition, as seen through an ETF lens. While there’s no shortage of battered funds to contemplate, that was true in previous updates and the deepest shades of red reflect a list that’s not all that different from recent rankings.
Macro Briefing: 28 June 2019
Winners and losers in 2nd Democratic debate: Politico
Leaders at G20 meeting confront conflicts over free trade, democracy: AP
What to expect from the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting: CNBC
Trump, in lighthearted exchange, tells Putin: Don’t meddle in election: BBC
Trump says ‘very big’ trade deals are pending with Japan and India: WSJ
US pending homes sales rebounded in May, but 1yr trend still negative: MW
US Q1 GDP growth is unrevised at +3.1% in government’s update: Reuters
US jobless claims rose to a 7-week high last week: MW
US Bond Market’s Rally In Everything Rolls On For 2019
Investors can’t get enough of bond-market risk this year. Sure, the bull run in US stocks is a sight to behold, but the animal spirits in fixed income are no less impressive. Demand for bonds has lifted all the major slices of US fixed income so far in 2019, based on a set of exchange-traded funds.
Macro Briefing: 27 June 2019
Trade-war topics on tap for Trump at G20 summit: CNN
US and China reportedly agree to tentative trade-war truce: SCMP
Looking for winners and losers in last night’s Democratic debate: USA Today
Hong Kong protests resume: Reuters
Eurozone economic sentiment index slumps to 3-year low in June: Reuters
Int’l trade gap for US widened to 5-month high in May: Bloomberg
US core durable goods orders’ 1-year trend is subdued at +1.3%:



