The new year has been kind to foreign stocks so far. Although all the major regions of the world are posting year-to-date gains through yesterday’s close (Jan. 29), equity markets in Latin America and Eastern Europe/Russia are well ahead of the rest of the field, based on a set of exchange-traded products.
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Fed will likely leave interest rates unchanged in today’s announcement: Reuters
Temperatures drop to ‘historic lows’ in Midwest: NBC
Foreign policy is dividing the Republican establishment: NY Times
With clock ticking, UK focuses on renegotiating Brexit; EU says no: Reuters
French economy grew faster than expected in Q4: FT
Economists are skeptical of White House’s rosy growth outlook: NY Times
Hedge fund assets in Q4 fell for first time in 10 quarters: P&I
Annual growth of US home prices falls to four-year low for annual change: MW 
US Consumer Confidence Index slumps to 18-month low in Dec: MW

A worrisome decline in the Treasury market’s implied inflation forecasts that began last October appeared to stabilize in the new year. But over the last week the downside bias has returned, raising questions about monetary policy ahead of tomorrow’s Federal Reserve’s policy meeting (Jan. 30), which will unveil new forecasts, a possible but unlikely change in interest rates and a press conference by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
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US filed criminal charges against Huawei, China’s tech giant: Bloomberg
White House announces sanctions on Venezuela’s state-owned oil company: CNBC
Republicans considering blocking a future gov’t shutdown: Politico
Liability from California wildfires forces PG&E to file for bankruptcy: WSJ
Fed’s ongoing asset-shedding operation is a policy challenge: Reuters
US Bureau of Economic Analysis: key economic reports will be delayed: BEA
Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index (3-mo avg) indicates moderate US growth in Dec:

Investment-grade corporate bonds in foreign markets topped last week’s widespread gains for the major asset classes, based on a set of exchange-traded funds for trading through Friday, Jan. 25.
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US economy will likely return to steady growth now that gov’t has reopened: CBS
Trump says another shutdown is possible: The Hill
NABE survey of economists: US recession is unlikely this year: AP
Venezuela’s opposition leader warns of another massive rally: CNN
US Treasury set to borrow $1 trillion for a second year: Bloomberg
The risk of low growth, low inflation and low interest rates is still lurking: NY Times
German business confidence slumps to 3-year low: RTT
Gold closed at a seven-month high on Friday:

● Retail Therapy: Why the Retail Industry is Broken–and What Can Be Done to Fix It
By Mark Pilkington
Review via The Times
If you feel mildly guilty that your Amazon habit has helped to turn many high streets and shopping centres from vibrant places of commerce and human contact into wastelands, Retail Therapy risks turning your discomfort into a source of deep shame and anxiety.
Mark Pilkington’s book, based on evidence from the UK and the US, will force you to confront the awkward truth that buying stuff online from your sofa or office desk threatens not only town centres, but also the jobs of the seven million people who work in shops and the industries that depend on them. Worldwide, about 192 million jobs — most of them held by women — may be in jeopardy. Retail Therapy bristles with alarming numbers.
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Next week’s scheduled release of gross domestic product (GDP) for last year’s fourth quarter will likely be delayed due to the partial government shutdown, but the latest estimates for the indicator still point to a moderate gain. The median estimate for a set of nowcasts compiled by The Capital Spectator reflects a 2.9% increase for Q4 GDP, which is fractionally higher vs. the previous estimate (published on Jan. 15.)
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Senate rejects a pair of plans to reopen government: The Hill
Senate explores new options for reopening gov’t after failed efforts: Bloomberg
Venezuela’s military backs Maduro; Russia warns US not to intervene: NY Times
Profiling the risk if US blocks oil imports from Venezuela: AP
US Economic Leading Index fell in Dec, hinting at slower growth in 2019: CB
Some datasets in Leading Index estimated due to gov’t shutdown: MNI
Bloomberg’s consumer sentiment index fell to near-7 month low: Bloomberg
Jobless claims in US fell to 49-year low last week: Reuters
KC Fed Mfg Index continues to reflect modest growth in January: KC Fed
US growth ticked up in January according to PMI survey data: IHS Markit

Below-investment-grade fixed-income securities continue to post a sizable year-to-date performance lead over the rest of the major slices of the US bond market, based on a set of exchange-traded funds. The strong gain for junk bonds is all the more striking when measured against the mixed results for the rest of the field.
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