US consumer sentiment ticked up in August, marking the first rise after four straight monthly declines, according to the University of Michigan’s survey. “Consumers’ short- and long-run economic outlook improved, with both figures reaching their most favorable levels since April 2024 and a particularly sizable 10% improvement for long-run expectations that was seen across age and income groups,” writes Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu.
The improvement follows a stronger rise in US personal consumption expenditures in July, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports. Consumer spending increased 0.5%, picking up from June’s 0.3% advance.
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The Workers Have Left The Building
The Capital Spectator is clocking out early for the Labor Day holiday. The usual schedule of toiling in the editorial salt mines resumes with the morning whistle on Tuesday, Sep. 3. Cheers!
Momentum And Large-Cap Growth Still Lead Equity Factor Returns
Betting against the hottest equity risk factors this year has been a painful strategy, if only in relative terms. But no matter how you slice the numbers, momentum and large-cap growth continue to outperform in 2024, based on a set of ETFs through yesterday’s close (Aug. 27).
Macro Briefing: 28 August 2024
* US home prices rose 5.4% in June vs year-ago level–faster than inflation
* AI bellwether Nvidia set to report earnings today after closing bell
* Across-the-board tariffs for US may be coming. Here’s what to expect
* 3 contrarian strategies worth a fresh look: EM stocks, value and small caps
* US consumer confidence rises to a six-month high in August:
US Recession Risk Is Still Low Via Q3 GDP Nowcasts
If a recession in the US has started, or is imminent, the threat has yet to show up in the latest run of nowcasts for third-quarter GDP. That’s no guarantee that the economy will continue expanding, but it’s an encouraging sign.
Macro Briefing: 27 August 2024
* Exxon forecasts fossil fuels to dominate energy use through 2050
* IBM is latest tech firm to downsize in China
* UBS Wealth Management sees US recession risk odds ticking up to 25%
* Texas factory activity exhibited little growth in August: Dallas Fed survey
* US durable goods orders surge in July due to transport equipment orders:
Africa Stocks Overtake US Shares As Top Performer In 2024
Earlier this month I discussed the possibility that the US stock market’s year-to-date performance would slip to second place as Africa shares rallied. Nearly two weeks later, the switch is complete, based on a set of proxy ETFs.
Macro Briefing: 26 August 2024
* Oil prices expected to remain elevated amid risk of wider Middle East war
* US 10yr yield falls to 3.80% after Fed’s Powell talks of rate cuts
* Gold holds near record high after Powell’s dovish policy comments
* German business sentiment falls for third consecutive month in August
* US new home sales in July rise to highest level in over a year:
Book Bits: 24 August 2024
● The Corporate Life Cycle: Business, Investment, and Management Implications
Aswath Damodaran
Summary via publisher (Portfolio/Penguin Random House)
Throughout his storied career, Aswath Damodaran has searched for the universal key to demystify corporate finance and valuation. Now, at last, he offers the groundbreaking answer to readers everywhere. It turns out there is a corporate lifecycle very much like our own — with unique stages of growth and decline. And just as we must learn to act our age, so too must companies. By better understanding how corporations age and the characteristics of each stage of their lifecycle, we can unlock the secrets behind any businesses behavior and optimize our management and investment decisions accordingly.
Is The Housing Market Poised For A Rebound?
The real estate market has had a rough ride since the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in March 2022. But as expectations strengthen that the central bank will start cutting next month, the outlook is rebounding for property shares.