A lot can happen over the course of a week when it comes to the crowd’s fickle sentiment du jour on matters of recession. At this time a week ago the headlines warned that a contraction, if it hadn’t already started, was imminent. Fast forward a week and you can hear a collective sigh of relief in the wake of economic news in recent days. In fact, the case for claiming recession risk had spiked was always weak, based on a broad set of published numbers. But if you monitor economic risk based on headlines and single-factor metrics, it’s easy to get whipsawed in the art/science of evaluating the US macro trend in real time.

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* US jobless claims fall for second week in sign of labor market resiliency
* US homebuilder sentiment falls to eight-month low In August
* US industrial output drops in July by most since the start of the year
* NY Fed Mfg Index stays negative in August
* US retail spending rises much more than expected in July:

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The spread between the US 10-year Treasury yield and a ‘fair value’ estimate calculated by CapitalSpectator.com continued to narrow in July. The market rate is still well above the model’s estimate, but as explained in recent months (see the analysis from March, for instance) the premium remains on track to ease.

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* Fed official says central bank can’t risk being late with rate cuts
* Japan’s GDP rises more than expected in Q2
* China industrial growth slows to four-month low in July
* Cisco will cut 7% of its global workforce
* US headline consumer inflation dips under 3% for first time since 2021:

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Betting against the US stock market has been a losing trade in relative terms in recent years and from a top-down down perspective it’s not obvious that’s about to change. But carving up the global market into regional slices highlights a rally in Africa stocks that may be set to give US shares a run for their money, based on a set of ETFs.

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* US regulator considers breaking up Google
* The unraveling of “carry trades” isn’t over, strategists predict
* US consumers fell behind on debt payments as pandemic-era wealth fades
* World’s largest sovereign wealth fund reports robust 1H tech-driven profits
* Home Depot downgrades earnings outlook as consumers turn cautious
* US wholesale inflation’s monthly changed ticked lower in July:

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Early assessments of third-quarter economic activity for the US point to slowdown vs. Q2, based on the median nowcast for a estimates compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. The downshift is prominent, but the estimate still points to low recession risk.

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* Iran retaliation against Israel could come this week, says White House
* Majority of Americans wrongly think US is in recession
* Investor demand for bonds rebounds as recession fear rises
* Fund managers raise cash holdings in August, BofA survey reports
* German economic sentiment falls sharply in August
* Big Tech’s electricity use higher than some demand in some countries
* GM cuts staff in China as it rethinks its strategy for the country
* Small business optimism rises for fourth straight month in July:

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It’s been a rough ride in recent weeks, but trend data still leaves room for debate on the prospects for maintaining bullish bets. Using a set of ETFs shows that most of the major asset classes in 2024 through Friday’s close (Aug. 9) are posting gains.

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* US sends more forces to Middle East, reacting to “escalating regional tensions”
* Is the recent surge of market volatility over? Not yet, predict analysts
* Increasingly price-sensitive consumers will help lower inflation rate
* Nouriel Roubini–“Dr. Doom”–doesn’t expect a hard landing for US anytime soon
* US inflation likely held stead in July, RBC predicts
* Despite market volatility, US large caps (SPY) still lead small caps (IJR) this year:

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