The only thing that was genuinely surprising in yesterday’s fourth-quarter report on US economic activity was the strength of the increase. The positive directional bias, by contrast, has been relatively clear for weeks, if not longer. Assuming, of course, that you were analyzing a broad array of indicators and avoiding the rookie mistakes of estimating recession risk.
Macro Briefing: 26 January 2024
* US jobless claims rose last week but remain low. But…
* Jobless claims may be an unreliable indicator of the labor market
* New US home sales rose more than expected in December
* Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index indicates softer growth in December
* Japan stock market approaching record high set in 1989
* US durable goods orders unchanged in December following November surge
* US GDP growth in Q4 beats expectations by wide margin:
Momentum Leads US Equity Factor Returns So Far In 2024
Will 2024 mark the return of the momentum factor to performance spotlight? This risk premium’s star faded in 2023, but there are hints that a rebound may be brewing for this slice of the equity risk premium, based on a set of proxy ETFs through Wednesday’s close (Jan. 24).
Macro Briefing: 25 January 2024
* Political blowback is a risk for the Fed and its policy decisions in 2024
* Middle East crisis is starting to weigh on European economy
* Eurozone business activity contracts for eighth month in January: PMI survey
* Revenue surges for globally critical semiconductor firm ASML
* Tesla is forecasting a sharp sales slowdown this year
* US business activity picks up in January via PMI survey data:
US Growth Slowdown Expected For Thursday’s Q4 GDP Report
The Bureau of Economic Analysis appears set to report tomorrow (Jan. 25) that US output slowed sharply in the fourth quarter after Q3’s unusually strong gain. But Thursday’s GDP report is also expected to show that growth was moderate in the final three months of 2023 – news that will support the ‘soft landing’ view that’s been popular with some economists.
Macro Briefing: 24 January 2024
* Trump appears set to be GOP nominee after winning NH primary
* Eurozone economy continues contracting in January via PMI survey data
* China central bank announces policy support to boost economic growth
* Economic shockwaves spreading from Red Sea turmoil
* Thursday’s US Q4 GDP report may confirm that ‘soft landing’ is here
* Climate economics is relevant just about everywhere
* S&P 500 edged higher on Tuesday, setting another record high:
Looking For The ‘Missing Link’ In Failed Recession Models
The resilience of the US economy in 2023 was a surprise for some (many?) economists. From the start of last year through the first half, and in some case into early Q3, an ample supply recession warnings flowed like wine from the lips of the punditocracy. A careful reading of the data suggested otherwise, but high-risk warnings draw a crowd and so the dark forecasts endured and prospered, running well beyond their shelf life.
Macro Briefing: 23 January 2024
* Polls predict Trump will effectively be GOP nominee after today’s NH primary
* Goldman’s head of trading still expects four Fed rate cuts for 2024
* China considers stock-market rescue package to address slumping prices
* Japan’s Nikkei stock market index rose to 34-year peak on Monday
* India’s stock market cap is now world’s fourth largest, overtaking Hong Kong
* US Leading Economic Index still signals recession despite growing economy:
US Stock Market At Record While Drawdowns Prevail Elsewhere
Wall Street celebrated on Friday when the S&P 500 Index, the most popular benchmark of US shares, closed at a record high for the first time in more than two years. The celebration, however, was an outlier as the rest of the major asset classes continue to trade below previous peaks in varying degrees, based on a set of ETFs through the close of trading on Jan. 19.
Macro Briefing: 22 January 2024
* Global supply-chain risk is rising again
* Russia was China’s biggest oil supplier in 2023
* Mortgage rates expected to fall below 6% by year’s end: Fannie Mae
* US home sales fell in 2023 to lowest level in nearly 30 years
* US to invest $325 million into EV charger to boost reliability and reduce costs
* US Consumer Sentiment Index rises sharply in January to 2-1/2 year high:
