The recessionistas are now forced to look to the third quarter as the earliest start date for an economic downturn in the US. The odds have been low recently that Q2 would mark the beginning of an NBER-defined contraction and yesterday’s stronger-than-expected rise in output for the April-through-June period seals the deal.
Macro Briefing: 26 July 2024
* Big-tech rally at risk if US economy cools, predicts Bank of America analyst
* US credit card delinquency rates rise to 12-year high
* Durable goods orders for US post surprisingly large decline in June
* Apple falls out of top-5 smartphone vendors in China
* US jobless claims fell last week, holding in relatively low range
* US economic growth rises more than expected in Q2:
Is The Latest Surge In Stock Market Volatility Noise Or Signal?
Two weeks ago I wrote: “US stocks look overbought,” based on a variety of metrics. Fast forward to yesterday’s close for the S&P 500 Index and equities are well below their recent peak. Dumb luck? Maybe, but the better question is whether the latest decline is the start of an extended slide or just a garden variety correction? Alas, no one knows the answer. Indeed, no one ever does. But we can review the basics for developing calculated-risk estimates.
Macro Briefing: 25 July 2024
* Is the potential unwinding of Biden’s economic policies an investment risk?
* China cuts interest rates for a second time this week
* John Deere says it’s laying off workers due to agriculture downturn
* New US home sales fell to 7-month low in June
* US business activity growth accelerates in July, driven by services:
The Case Against Lone Recession Indicators Is Stronger Than Ever
It’s a human shortcoming to favor simple explanations for the business cycle. The notion that reliability and timeliness can be forged in one indicator endures, but recent history has hammered this approach, reminds a new commentary from Axios.
Macro Briefing: 24 July 2024
* Several widely-monitored recession indicators “don’t work like they used to”
* Trading volume tops $1 billion for debut of ether ETFs
* FTC launches probe into ‘surveillance pricing’ that rapidly changes prices
* Eurozone business activity is nearly at standstill in July: PMI survey
* US existing home sales fell for fourth month in June:
US Q2 GDP Growth Set For Modest Pickup In Thursday’s Report
US economic activity is on track to post a modestly firmer growth rate for the second quarter GDP report scheduled for release on Thursday, July 25. The estimate is based on the median estimate for a set of projections compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.
Macro Briefing: 23 July 2024
* Harris secures enough delegates to become Democratic party’s nominee
* US regulator finds weak risk management at over half of major banks
* Cyber-security startup Wiz rejects Google’s $23 billion acquisition offer
* Ethereum ETFs approved by SEC set to start trading
* US economic growth shows signs of stabilizing in June:
Large-Cap Growth Is Still Leading The Market. Will It Last?
Reviewing the major US equity factors on a year-to-date basis continues to show large-cap growth leading the horse race, based on a set of ETF prices through Friday, July 19. But last week may have been a turning point for the factor laggards, say analysts.
Macro Briefing: 22 July 2024
* US presidential race set to tighten with VP Harris on track to replace Biden
* Stock market’s laggards have sprung to life in recent days as tech stumbles
* People’s Bank of China unexpectedly cuts short-term policy rate
* Tight oil market is set to fade in 2025, predicts Morgan Stanley
* Sovereign wealth funds turning bullish on emerging markets, survey shows:
