The Wall Street maxim that markets climb a wall of worry seems to apply to the bond market this year. Despite a range of concerns, including tariff-related inflation to government debt, fixed-income securities are posting strong year-to-date gains through Monday’s close (Oct. 10), based on a set of ETFs.
Category Archives: Uncategorized
Macro Briefing: 11 November 2025
The Senate votes to reopen government. The deal will extend government funding through January. The bipartisan bill still needs to pass the House and get signed by President Trump before the government can reopen.
The Genius-Is-A-Bull-Market Trade Keeps On Winning In 2025
With less than two months to go before the champagne glasses start clinking on Dec. 31, widespread gains continue to dominate the performance ledger for global markets. A lot can happen between now and the New Year’s celebrations – and probably will — but for the moment the appetite for risk is leaning toward a win-win for portfolio strategies in 2025, based on a set of ETFs through Friday’s close (Nov. 7).
Macro Briefing: 10 November 2025
US Consumer Sentiment Index falls in November, approaching record low, according to the University of Michigan’s monthly survey. “This month’s decline in sentiment was widespread throughout the population, seen across age, income, and political affiliation,” said a spokesperson for the report. “With the federal government shutdown dragging on for over a month, consumers are now expressing worries about potential negative consequences for the economy.”
Book Bits: 8 November 2025
● The Age of Extraction: How Tech Platforms Conquered the Economy and Threaten Our Future Prosperity
Tim Wu
Review via Financial Times
Tim Wu is a titan in the world of competition policy in digital markets. He is a distinguished legal scholar who coined the term net neutrality; the author of two significant books, The Master Switch (2010) and The Attention Merchants (2016), about the accumulation of market power by big tech companies; and was president Joe Biden’s special assistant for technology and competition policy as the administration began to attack the power of the digital giants.
This record of insight, indeed prescience, makes his new book, The Age of Extraction, a must-read. The subtitle says it all — How Tech Platforms Conquered the Economy and Threaten Our Future Prosperity. The analysis of economic dominance is unchanged from his previous books, but the tone now is both urgent and pessimistic.
50 Shades Of Tactical
There’s no consensus on what defines “tactical” for asset allocation, but I know it when I see it. But on Wall Street and beyond the details vary widely, enough so that two investors chatting about the topic can be referring to radically different ideas. Cue up an invitation to lay down some thoughts on the basic assumptions a tactical asset allocation strategy.
Macro Briefing: 7 November 2025
US layoffs surged in October, rising to the highest level in more than 20 years, according to data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas. “October’s pace of job cutting was much higher than average for the month,” said chief revenue officer for the data firm. “Some industries are correcting after the hiring boom of the pandemic, but this comes as AI adoption, softening consumer and corporate spending, and rising costs drive belt-tightening and hiring freezes.”
US Economy Probably Cooled In Q3, But Still Growing
It’s unclear when the government will publish the third-quarter GDP report, but the latest numbers still suggest that moderate growth prevailed.
Macro Briefing: 6 November 2025
Hiring at US companies rebounded in October: private sector employment increased by 42,000 jobs, according to the ADP Employment Report. “Private employers added jobs in October for the first time since July, but hiring was modest relative to what we reported earlier this year,” said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Meanwhile, pay growth has been largely flat for more than a year, indicating that shifts in supply and demand are balanced.”
Is Bubble Risk Elevated?
Bubble talk is back and for obvious reasons. The stock market has been on a tear and valuation has soared. Classic signs of a bubble, right? Maybe, but it’s usually best to proceed cautiously before declaring that the end is near simply someone tells you the jig is up.