Whenever I update The Capital Spectator Economic Trend Index (CS-ETI), as I did last week, someone usually asks how to interpret the data. In particular, how should we translate CS-ETI’s raw numbers into probabilities for estimating recession risk? One solution is looking at the data through the filter of what’s known as a probit model.
Daily Archives: October 2, 2012
Strategic Briefing | 10.2.12 | Fiscal Cliff Risk Analysis–Oct Edition
Leaders at Work on Plan to Avert Mandatory Cuts
The New York Times | Oct 1
Senate leaders are closing in on a path for dealing with the “fiscal cliff” facing the country in January, opting to try to use a postelection session of Congress to reach agreement on a comprehensive deficit reduction deal rather than a short-term solution.