Daily Archives: October 10, 2012

Jack Welch, Employment Data, And The Big Picture

Jack Welch insists that the September jobs report, released last week, is “strange” and “implausible.” Specifically, the economy’s sluggish growth doesn’t support the reported drop in unemployment last month to 7.8% from 8.1% in August. It just “doesn’t make sense,” the former head of General Electric writes in The Wall Street Journal. The problem, he explains, is that the methodology behind the household employment survey, which is the source of the unemployment number, is less than perfect. Agreed. But why stop there? If we’re fired up about finding reasons to question economic indicators–one at a time, in a vacuum–the opportunity is unlimited for casting aspersions across the statistical landscape. This is a dead end, however, if we’re looking for deeper insight about the economy and the business cycle. Pointing out flaws for a given data series has merit, but not much. The bigger issue is deciding how to interpret the numbers in search of reasonably reliable perspective. Fortunately, the outlook isn’t as bleak as Welch’s essay implies.

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