All forecasts are wrong. That’s the nature of trying to look through the fog of uncertainty for guidance on the future. Some forecasts are less wrong than others, of course, but it’s always sensible to assume that the prediction du jour contains noise. That doesn’t mean that forecasting is worthless, but it does make predictions dangerous if you don’t look at the estimates in probabilistic terms. But that’s hardly standard procedure in the wider world. Thinking through the finer points for forecasting is too often neglected, and sometimes ignored entirely.