Maybe not, some analysts warn. As reported earlier today, new filings for unemployment benefits declined last week to the lowest level since January 2008. On its face, the data suggests a big improvement in the dynamics of the labor market. But in the hours after the numbers were released, questions about the validity of the report have been flying far and wide.
Daily Archives: October 11, 2012
Jobless Claims Fell To New Post-Recession Low Last Week
Today’s update on weekly jobless claims delivers the best news for the labor market in recent memory. It certainly one of the strongest reports for this series since the Great Recession ended in June 2009. However you describe today’s news for this leading indicator, it’s unequivocally encouraging, and powerfully so. Yes, it may be misleading, as any one data point for this volatile series can be, and so we should be wary until we see more numbers in the weeks ahead. But at the very least today’s update strengthens the case for expecting continued healing in the labor market and slow economic growth, perhaps at a moderately faster pace. Analysts in the recession-is-here-now camp, in other words, have some explaining to do.