Private non-farm payrolls increased by 162,000 last month, according to this morning’s ADP Employment update for September. That’s down a bit from August’s revised 189,000 gain, which suggests that we should keep our expectations in check for Friday’s official September jobs report from the Labor Department. Nonetheless, there’s nothing conspicuously dark in today’s data dump to suggest that the slow growth trend rolled over last month. In fact, when you consider today’s ADP release with yesterday’s mild rebound in the ISM Manufacturing Index last month, the case is a bit stronger for expecting September to remain in the growth camp (once all the month’s numbers are published).
Monthly Archives: October 2012
Estimating Recession Risk Probabilities With A Probit Model
Whenever I update The Capital Spectator Economic Trend Index (CS-ETI), as I did last week, someone usually asks how to interpret the data. In particular, how should we translate CS-ETI’s raw numbers into probabilities for estimating recession risk? One solution is looking at the data through the filter of what’s known as a probit model.
Strategic Briefing | 10.2.12 | Fiscal Cliff Risk Analysis–Oct Edition
Leaders at Work on Plan to Avert Mandatory Cuts
The New York Times | Oct 1
Senate leaders are closing in on a path for dealing with the “fiscal cliff” facing the country in January, opting to try to use a postelection session of Congress to reach agreement on a comprehensive deficit reduction deal rather than a short-term solution.
September Manufacturing Activity Revives After 3 Sluggish Months
Manufacturing activity modestly rebounded in September, the Institute for Supply Management reports. Today’s update of the organization’s widely followed ISM Manufacturing PMI Index reveals that “economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in September following three consecutive months of slight contraction.” The index rose to 51.5 last month, up from 49.6 in August. A reading above 50 equates with economic expansion. Overall, it’s a relatively upbeat report and one that surprised many economists.
Major Asset Classes | September 2012 | Performance Review
The capital and commodity markets in general enter the third quarter on a strong note. Nearly all of the major asset classes posted gains in September and everything is comfortably in the black for the year through the end of the third quarter. Looking backward suggests that all’s well. But rearview mirrors can be misleading at times if momentum is set to give way to mean reversion. .