The US economy added a net 215,000 private-sector jobs last month, according to this morning’s ADP Employment Report—the biggest monthly gain in a year. The upbeat news suggests that the better-than-expected October payrolls report from the Labor Department isn’t a fluke after all.
Daily Archives: December 4, 2013
Wrong Models, Good Forecasts, And The Search For Useful Guidance
The Economist asks the question that never goes out of style: Who’s good at forecasts? “That question is both obvious and critical. And yet, in most instances, we really don’t know the answer.” I prefer the view that no one and everyone is good at this guessing game. No one in the sense that the future is unknowable. Everyone because even a broken forecasting model can be right at times, albeit for the wrong reason: luck. It’s the gray area between those extremes that’s dangerously seductive and occasionally useful.